Tebow or McCoy?

While I think that Tebow could end up being the bigger surprise I'll go with the proven. Don't care how much Tebow "wants it"

Whoever we get he better be good!

Gtripp can you give performances ranges that define elite/strong/above average in the various categories?

I'd take McCoy, we can't afford to gamble on either but I'd take a traditional QB that doesn't have to change his throwing motion on our dime and a media circus to follow, to me Tebow would be a wasted pick for us, if we were a team like the Colts, Patriots, Chargers teams that can afford a 2nd round gamble like that, then I'd be all for it..GO McCOY

I'd take McCoy, we can't afford to gamble on either but I'd take a traditional QB that doesn't have to change his throwing motion on our dime and a media circus to follow, to me Tebow would be a wasted pick for us, if we were a team like the Colts, Patriots, Chargers teams that can afford a 2nd round gamble like that, then I'd be all for it..GO McCOY


Couldn't have said it better myself.

Gtripp can you give performances ranges that define elite/strong/above average in the various categories?I can give you my baselines for averages and medians:

All data includes drafted players since 2005.

QB Starts - median 33, average 32
Completion percentage* - median 61%, average 61%

*(the average of players expected to be drafted in this class is actually pushing 64%. I split the difference and used 62.5% because of the possibility that the spread concepts behind this increase are here to stay, and the possibility that this is just a strong class).

TD Rate - 5.86%
INT rate - 2.64%
Sack Rate* - median 5.8%, average 6.0%

*(This class is median 5.2%, average 5.0%. I used these baselines instead of the historically higher ones)

Career deviation was literally the standard deviation of the spread of values over the four years of a players college eligibility, with passing attempts per year determining the value. 12 was the average, although, I don't really have anyway to make that number meaningful. I don't think variance is inherently bad: it's bad in highly rated prospects, but good in lower rated prospects.

Bradford's numbers are really completely off all the charts, but his career path was highly unorthodox and his incredible TD/INT rate is unlikely to translate anyway.

Within about one point of the median value, a player was average. Within about two points, above or below average. Outside of four points/values from the median/mean, strong or weak, and elite players were among the best two or three ever in that statistical recording since 2005.

All statistics are college statistics. Pro success/failures had no relevance in my analysis.

I'll take one hell of a trade in order to get Bradford next year. If we try any and all possible trade scenarios and the option is too expensive then I think I still like McCoy over Clausen. Reports were he was the next best in accuracy. His arm strength was not as good as Bradfords or Clausen but we have arm strength in JC and the new Vet. We need accuracy.

I think if you protect Campbell, you'll get really good accuracy. That's really all that was different in 2008.

Let him get hit all day long and, well, yeah, his mechanics go to hell. And then you get crappy accuracy like in 2009.

I think if you protect Campbell, you'll get really good accuracy. That's really all that was different in 2008.

Let him get hit all day long and, well, yeah, his mechanics go to hell. And then you get crappy accuracy like in 2009.

I'll be interested to see how jumpy he is this year. Guy sure did stay on his toes knowing that he had to run for his life at any given moment.. was pretty obvious his knees (at least) were bothering him too.

Theres' something to be said for making a 2 pt jump in completion percentage without drastically changing how deep the average pass is being thrown and all the while regressing in terms of accuracy. What, exactly, that says I'm really not sure.

It could be as simple as a propensity to take more sacks.