Redskins Sign Grossman

This whole Shanahan likes Brennan thing has been way overblown. As of two weeks ago he hadn't even seen film of him playing in preseason games.

True, he's not going to challenge Campbell or anything, but he liked him enough to not cut him and let him in the "open competition", unlike Collins (thankfully).

I'd be fine with JC being backed up by whomever comes out ahead in the Rex/Colt battle.

As I already explained before, what Bill Polian is talking about is not how the player pans out as a success or failure in the NFL.

He's referring to the order the players are drafted in the NFL. Therefore, there is little to no reason to believe that Matt Leinart "fell" from the Top 4.

We're not talking about who busts and who doesn't. We're talking about why the Jets took Ferguson instead of Leinart. And the reason is because Leinart ranked that much lower.
Yeah, because Casserly defied expectations and chose Mario Williams, then the Saints chose Bush, who was hyped up like no other, the Titans wanted Young, Jets took Ferguson even though their QB situation was hardly optimal(Pennington, Ramsey, Clemens) as well, Green Bay and San Fran already had a "QB of the future", Davis probably didn't care for Leinart, Millen wanted to stick with Kitna, the Bills "passed over" and the allowed the Cards to grab Leinart.

Couldn't agree more.

So what if they trade Campbell and the #4 to St Louis? You are still stuck paying out a contract for a #1 overall pick, QB none the less who gets paid more than anyone. Take a look at past #1 overall QB taken, they get TONS of money. And if a franchise if not careful, it could set thier team back as much as 10 years. Case in point:

JaMarcus Russell
Ryan Leaf (ok he was the 2nd pick, but you see what I mean)

The #1 overall pick is scary enough to choose, but on a QB it is magnified ten-fold.

#1- Who gives a rats arse about how much he will make? There is no CAP.

#2- The Skins at like 78 mill tied up in players. We now are like 3rd cheapest I thought I read somewhere. Thats after releasing all those players.

#3- I don't see your point but how much farther back can we go then 4-12? Last in the division?

Yeah, because Casserly defied expectations and chose Mario Williams, then the Saints chose Bush, who was hyped up like no other, the Titans wanted Young, Jets took Ferguson even though their QB situation was hardly optimal(Pennington, Ramsey, Clemens) as well, Green Bay and San Fran already had a "QB of the future", Davis probably didn't care for Leinart, Millen wanted to stick with Kitna, the Bills "passed over" and the allowed the Cards to grab Leinart.

Exactly. You may think that draft was a "surprise" but that's because you were probably following some mock draft on an Internet site.

"Polian recently said two things are true:

• For those who actually do the drafting, the first-round is rarely a mystery.

• It usually doesn't play out as those doing the mocking predict."

"He said the reason for that is the teams have access to data that those performing mock drafts don't often possess. For that reason, he said, some players fall down the draft board. A players' declining stock may be a draft-day surprise, but Polian said it's often because of a factor about which league personnel officials already knew."

“You have to really work hard to ignore the data. There are very few exceptions anymore. Hardly ever. They almost go off in many ways almost exactly how you have them rated.”

Thanks for the compliment. Balances out the "YOU KNOW NOTHING ABOUT FOOTBALL" one I had earlier today. :D

I did edit the spelling..sorry. I suffer from macular degeneration, and sometimes even when I proof read I don't recognize my mistakes.

Well the lottery is high risk high reward. But if you don't have the winning ticket, no worries just play again next week.

But for a QB taken #1 overall. Your organization will invest MILLIONS in him. And IF he does work out, you get your reward.

But history shows there have been a substantially high number of QB's taken that high that did NOT work out. And now the organization is stuck. Owe the player millions of dollars that could be going to a more productive prospect (or 2 or 3!). And you cant trade him because his contract is so huge.

A team can win and survive if you select a DE, DT, OL, RB, any other position on the field #1 and they end up being a bust.

But the QB position, no way. Once you are committed to this kid, thats it, you are in bed with him for the long haul.

I'm not ignoring the reward part. I just don't think it is worth the high of a risk or gamble selecting a QB that high.

Any other position that busts, and it just affects that position. But if you bust on your QB, that affects all 53 players on that roster.

I would take Suh or McCoy (DT) over Bradford/Clausen with the top pick of the draft for just the reasons I stated. if Suh or McCoy (DT) turn out to be a bust, well that is a lot better risk than if my QB is a bust.

If that is true, then to be logically consistent you must argue that the Colts were wrong to draft Manning #1 overall or the Cowboys were wrong to draft Aikman #1 overall.

To recognize the pitfalls of drafting a QB at #1 is wise. To turn it into a "don't draft a QB" dogma is foolish. The situation is more complex than your arguments allow.

There are plenty of ways to build up the offensive line beside spending the 4th overall pick on an offensive lineman

but we need 2 first 2 round picks this year bro

Exactly. You may think that draft was a "surprise" but that's because you were probably following some mock draft on an Internet site.

"Polian recently said two things are true:

• For those who actually do the drafting, the first-round is rarely a mystery.

• It usually doesn't play out as those doing the mocking predict."

"He said the reason for that is the teams have access to data that those performing mock drafts don't often possess. For that reason, he said, some players fall down the draft board. A players' declining stock may be a draft-day surprise, but Polian said it's often because of a factor about which league personnel officials already knew."

“You have to really work hard to ignore the data. There are very few exceptions anymore. Hardly ever. They almost go off in many ways almost exactly how you have them rated.”
I think it'd be common sense to say that those doing the drafting will be closer than the analysts. The ones doing the drafting have a better idea of the team's future, additional moves, etc that they have planned. Goes without saying imo

Maybe. Or maybe the Rams take the lesser value because they get a starting QB but save the #1 pick money.


Which is what I keep hearing. They wanted to can their HC after one year due to how the season played out. They decided to give him one more year to try and get it right. Rumor is no HC is going to bank his last ditch effort on a Rookie QB who might be a bust. Their HC is looking for a QB who can get the job done and although some of us have issues with JC he is safe with the ball which is most likely what the Rams need.

Another rumor I heard was they wanted to trade out of that spot cause they either didn't want to pay that price for a player or didn't think anyone was worth the money. If no one wants to trade or they can't get the value for the pick of course they will keep it and pick someone at a positon they need.

Trading with the Skins gives them a good QB who's safe with the ball and seasoned and a draft pick of their choice at at lower cost. Most likely DL which is both of their needs.

Exactly. You may think that draft was a "surprise" but that's because you were probably following some mock draft on an Internet site.

"Polian recently said two things are true:

• For those who actually do the drafting, the first-round is rarely a mystery.

• It usually doesn't play out as those doing the mocking predict."

Yes, your hyping up of GMs as omniscient gods with perfect foresight is something else. The mocks may not get freaking order right, but generally right about the general vincinity of where the players are taken.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams take EITHER Bradford or Suh this year. Polian isn't surprised because he probably accounted most of the ways the picks could have gone, NOT because he has some godly ESP.
The Jets could have taken Leinart, and no one would be that surprised either because he was one of those top prospects. If Leinart fell to 8, that wouldn't have been surprising either, because the Lions bombed with Harrington and may have wanted a fresh start. I'll bet he played out all of those potential scenarios and wouldn't have been the least bit surprised if ANY of them happened.