ESPN: Clayton Expects Skins to Tender Campbell for a 1st and 3rd

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tryfuhl
02-23-2010, 02:18 PM
I was thinking the following trade if it was offered.

Redskins give up:
Jason Campbell, 2011 3rd Rounder, 2010 4th Rounder

Redskins get:
2010 2nd Rounder

I personally don't see anyone giving a straight up 2nd round pick for JC. We'd probably have to sweeten the pot. Still the idea of relying on a rookie QB so soon makes me nervous. We would possibly have to look at veterans to start in the meantime. This type of trade would be really useful especially if it was with the Rams.

I've recently started to scale back on my support for JC (which is constantly on a roller coaster). However in reading something like this I can't help but think that we really won't be that much better:



I mean to me Campbell seems a lot like Garrard and with that said I see us going only so far with JC at QB. Funny thing though is if we draft Jimmy Clausen our QB will still be JC.
that sounds like a horrible deal for us

Dirtbag59
02-23-2010, 02:24 PM
I'm not a Campbell fan by any means, but he's easily worth a low 2nd rounder - high 3rd rounder.

Teams don't use that draft chart nearly as much as people think. Look at all the picks that Eli Manning cost the Giants. Then look at Randy Moss being trade for a 4th round pick. Just because Campbell might be worth a 2nd rounder doesn't mean we'll get that for him. If you trade him straight up you probably get an early third round pick if you're lucky which isn't worth trading him in my mind. I'd rather have the first pick in the second round (which is in essence a first round pick) and the 5th pick in the second in exchange for a QB that will most likely be gone after this year.

However you're crazy to think that we'd just get away with a second round pick for Campbell at this point. If that happens I'll be the first to apologize but that rarely happens. Teams have seen to much of Campbell to just trade him for a second round pick.

over the mountain
02-23-2010, 02:39 PM
BHA i dont understand your comparison of dirtbags proposal vs your "realistic" one.

in dirt's proposal i dont understand why you assign the rams 2010 2nd round pick as being 48th overall when they pick 33rd? isnt your "more realistic" proposal just an accurate recitation of dirt's proposal?

Dirtbag59
02-23-2010, 02:58 PM
BHA i dont understand your comparison of dirtbags proposal vs your "realistic" one.

in dirt's proposal i dont understand why you assign the rams 2010 2nd round pick as being 48th overall when they pick 33rd? isnt your "more realistic" proposal just an accurate recitation of dirt's proposal?

I think he was using realistic sarcastically. If I'm right BHA would trade JC for a second round pick straight up. Still I don't get the numbers on the 2011 3rd round pick. I think a 2010 third round pick has the potential to fetch a 2011 second round pick.

However a 2011 third round pick is worth less this year then it will be next year. It's sort of like money. It's present value may be worth X number of points today but next year when it "matures" it'll be worth more. Ironcially I'm thinking that the 2011 3rd rounder should be valued as a 4th round pick this year. Not a second round pick. That would leave a 300 point gap assuming the 2011 pick gets valued correctly as a 2010 4th round pick making it around 100 points.

So with that said BHA I think you owe more me a couple more points for Campbells value :D

Still I'm not that into the trade chart. I think teams use it as more of a guideline.

BigHairedAristocrat
02-23-2010, 03:02 PM
BHA i dont understand your comparison of dirtbags proposal vs your "realistic" one.

in dirt's proposal i dont understand why you assign the rams 2010 2nd round pick as being 48th overall when they pick 33rd? isnt your "more realistic" proposal just an accurate recitation of dirt's proposal?

sorry, i changed my example scenario halfway through (when i read a blurb on extremeskins about the rams being interested in Campbell) and didnt go back and revalue everything. well i did, i just missed a few things... you are right dirtbag, i do owe you a few points. :) i would go back and change what I saw saying, but it would make things even more confusing.

Essentially, if we traded with the Rams, i'd view a fair trade as being:

Rams get:
Jason Campbell

Redskins get:
Rams 3rd round pick

OR

Rams get:
1. Jason Campbell
2. 4th overall pick in the 2010 draft

Redskins get:
1. 1st overall pick in the 2011 draft

In that scenario, the Rams would get a starting QB and use the 4th overall pick on Okung and the skins would trade down with a team that really wanted Suh or McCoy and nab another teams 1st and 2nd round picks.

If we're going to move Campbell, i'd rather see us trade him for a 3rd, trade down 5-8 spots in the first and pick up another 3rd round pick.

Dirtbag59
02-23-2010, 03:04 PM
sorry, i changed my example scenario halfway through and didnt go back and revalue everything. well i did, i just missed a few things.

Yeah like in that trade with the Rams JC is valued around 380 points (52 Overall) :D

And in my scenario from a trade value perspective (which I still say is subjective the trade looks like this).

Redskins give up:
2nd Round pick 52nd overall (380 points) - Jason Campbell
Two 4th round picks (valued at 100 points each) - 2011 3rd Rounder and 2010 4th Rounder.

Redskins get:
Rams 2nd Round Pick 33rd overall (580 points)

Dirtbag59
02-23-2010, 03:18 PM
sorry, i changed my example scenario halfway through (when i read a blurb on extremeskins about the rams being interested in Campbell) and didnt go back and revalue everything. well i did, i just missed a few things... you are right dirtbag, i do owe you a few points. :) i would go back and change what I saw saying, but it would make things even more confusing.

Essentially, if we traded with the Rams, i'd view a fair trade as being:

Rams get:
Jason Campbell

Redskins get:
Rams 3rd round pick

OR

Rams get:
1. Jason Campbell
2. 4th overall pick in the 2010 draft

Redskins get:
1. 1st overall pick in the 2011 draft

In that scenario, the Rams would get a starting QB and use the 4th overall pick on Okung and the skins would trade down with a team that really wanted Suh or McCoy and nab another teams 1st and 2nd round picks.

If we're going to move Campbell, i'd rather see us trade him for a 3rd, trade down 5-8 spots in the first and pick up another 3rd round pick.

Ha ha, it's alright. I just spent the last hour or something like that trying to figure out how much a 2011 pick is worth in terms of 2010 value and I kept going back and fourth. It really is simple but for some reason I wasn't able to figure it out. That first scenario though is actually pretty realistic in terms of a straight up 1:1 trade but for me to part with JC17 I would need to find some way to yield a 2nd round pick without giving up a 2nd round pick or better (ie 1st rounder).

What I was thinking with the scenario I posted was with getting two high second round picks we can draft a QB and get two starting quality lineman in the form of either two tackles or a tackle and highly valued interior guy like Pouncey (C/G Florida).

However with that 3rd round scenario are you thinking about trading down and picking up an additional 3rd round pick giving us two third rounders and in turn trading back up into the second or staying pat and taking two players in the third?

Lotus
02-23-2010, 03:32 PM
^^ I'm not the world's greatest JC fan. But you guys are seriously undervaluing JC with your trade proposals. A 3rd rounder for a QB with a lifetime passer rating in the 80's and with significant starting experience? Some other team will value him eventually. We should hang on to him until we get that high value.

tryfuhl
02-23-2010, 03:39 PM
^^ I'm not the world's greatest JC fan. But you guys are seriously undervaluing JC with your trade proposals. A 3rd rounder for a QB with a lifetime passer rating in the 80's and with significant starting experience? Some other team will value him eventually. We should hang on to him until we get that high value.
That's why we were able to trade him away last year for a 2nd right?

Dirtbag59
02-23-2010, 03:40 PM
^^ I'm not the world's greatest JC fan. But you guys are seriously undervaluing JC with your trade proposals. A 3rd rounder for a QB with a lifetime passer rating in the 80's and with significant starting experience? Some other team will value him eventually. We should hang on to him until we get that high value.

Are you talking to me or BHA? I mean I know I sort of endorsed BHA's 3rd round proposal but I had a different scenario. Ironically though I believe the QB's that fetch second round picks are either truly seasoned veterans (who usually get traded away for much higher a la Jay Cutler), smart teams dealing with dumb teams (Eagles getting AJ Feely for a 2nd round pick from Miami), or guys that have shown flashes (Matt Schuab and Matt Cassel).

Cassel was part of an 11-5 Patriots team (11-4 in games Cassel started) and that was pretty much his only year playing. Matt Schuab lit teams up in the preseason and then played well when given a chance during the regular season. However at the same time there was a sort of mystery. It's the same reason why guys that are valued as top picks (like Matt Leinart and Jakim Noah in the NBA) then go on to drop a few spots the following year.

It's sad but the more time scouts have to dissect a player the lower their value, well more so when they're initially valued high. Obviously we have guys every year that are valued as 3rd or 4th round picks during preseason only to end up as 1st round picks by the time the draft roles around.

Could JC fetch a 2nd round pick? Possibly but I really think teams are scared by the fact that he has a relatively large body of work and only so much to show for it. But hey you never know. All we need is to get a call from Al Davis or Ralph Wilson and we're raking in the picks.

On second thought if we can convince Jason to change his first name to Matt then I think we could grantee a second round pick for Campbell. In short Matt Campbell is worth more then Jason Campbell.

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