The Mid Round QB fallacy

^^ agreed.

thats all i got.

What makes you think Bradford can be elite without a shitload of talent around him? That is my point with going for these second tier guys who have played great ball without the great talent around them. It might take us at least 3 years to produce a winning product, and that is if Allen and co get it right, no draft busts, etc. IF Shanny likes Bradford and thinks he is a gamer who am I to say any differently, but if Bradford starts in 2011 he still is going to have to deal with a less than stellar crop of talent around him. Bradford's potentially bum shoulder, aside, he might suck when faced up against a superior opponent or one that is on par with the Skins. He never had to face that at Oklahoma, except maybe twice a year at the most.

I'd say this is very much black-and-white thinking. You seem to hone in on two possible courses of action: draft best player available vs draft for need.

Couldn't (and shouldn't) teams be using a hybrid formula?

If the goal is to get better as a whole, teams should be drafting players for the value they provide over the player currently on the roster who will be displaced. So the possible Sam Bradford selection should be evaluated in light of the quality QB he's replacing, Jason Campbell. A Russell Okung selection should be evaluated in light of the T he's replacing, Stephon Heyer or Levi Jones (assuming Samuels retires). But further compounding matters is whether or not another player is available later in the draft who also represents an equal upgrade over the current roster.

And really, the crux of your argument is risk. You're saying that QBs are so hit and miss while Ts are more likely to pan out. Fair point. But I'd counter by noting that I'm not interested in getting better, I'm interested in getting great. It doesn't do much for me to see a great LT come on, protect a mediocre QB for years, and watch us fade in and out of mediocrity.

I'm interested in a player we can build around, who covers for the deficiencies of others, who makes the team a more attractive destination for free agents, and who makes his teammates better rather than playing at a level commensurate to his teammates.

Granted the risk is there, but so is the reward. I'm in the camp that feels Campbell is not championship material, in my mind no offensive line (save the Hogs) could make Campbell a SB winning QB. IF Shanny sees something in Bradford or Clausen, that elite potential, I say go for it. I get what you're saying, you need to be right.

But still, sack up and put the chips on the table, I'm tired of being a fringe playoff team every single year. Nothing transforms your franchise like an elite QB.

Good points Schneed. I just happen to think Okung would be a huge improvement over any LT we have. I love Samuels but think his better days are behind him. I don't feel anywhere near as sure that Bradford or Clausen are a big improvement over JC. They may be, they might not be. If the people in charge think so, so be it. Like I said, I'm a big fan of Bradford. I don't think anyone disagrees that nothing transforms your franchise like an elite QB. If we draft a QB with the #4 pick, I certainly hope he's elite. If not, we'll probably spend the next 3-5 years trying to make him one. I hope that's not the case. And even he would benefit from an elite o-line.

I'm interested in a player we can build around, who covers for the deficiencies of others, who makes the team a more attractive destination for free agents, and who makes his teammates better rather than playing at a level commensurate to his teammates.

Granted the risk is there, but so is the reward. I'm in the camp that feels Campbell is not championship material, in my mind no offensive line (save the Hogs) could make Campbell a SB winning QB. IF Shanny sees something in Bradford or Clausen, that elite potential, I say go for it. I get what you're saying, you need to be right.

But still, sack up and put the chips on the table, I'm tired of being a fringe playoff team every single year. Nothing transforms your franchise like an elite QB.

Sounds like you want a quick fix with a franchise QB. The funny thing is that isn't that what Snyder wanted to do all along and why he wanted to get Sanchez or Cutler in the offseason? Get that franchise QB at all cost that will miraculously carry this team on his shoulders.

The funny thing about all of this is that while no one (including myself) is complaining about picking up Orakpo, had we picked up Michael Oher last year, we wouldn't be having this discussion about picking up a tackle vs. a QB with the #4 pick. By now, Oher would have had a year under his belt, and probably would have started a lot of games, and we would be free to pick up Bradford or Clausen.

Sounds like you want a quick fix with a franchise QB. The funny thing is that isn't that what Snyder wanted to do all along and why he wanted to get Sanchez or Cutler in the offseason? Get that franchise QB at all cost that will miraculously carry this team on his shoulders.

The funny thing about all of this is that while no one (including myself) is complaining about picking up Orakpo, had we picked up Michael Oher last year, we wouldn't be having this discussion about picking up a tackle vs. a QB with the #4 pick. By now, Oher would have had a year under his belt, and probably would have started a lot of games, and we would be free to pick up Bradford or Clausen.

Actually I'm not calling for a quick fix, because my opinion is colored by a sound understanding of recent league history when it comes to QBs. Peyton Manning took several years to reach the AFC Championship and ultimately win a Super Bowl. Drew Brees was mediocre early in his SD days, then got better with experience, and eventually reached all-pro level. Matt Ryan was impressive his first two years but he hasn't yet made the leap to become an elite QB. Phillip Rivers and Eli Manning took a few years to really get up and running (Eli's not even elite, but he still took time to win the SB).

I understand that a QB will most likely take time to reach that level of dominant force. And I understand that it takes a strong team around him, too.

But the point remains, it's a lot easier to win a SB with a dominant QB and solid LT than it is to win one with a dominant LT and a solid QB. That's a much more important point than the fact that 1st round offensive lineman are more likely to pan out than 1st round QBs.

Don't get me wrong though, something has to be done about LT and the rest of the line. I don't think we'll ever win a SB with Levi Jones or Stephon Heyer starting at LT, we've got to get better at that spot. It's just I'd gladly get behind rolling the dice on Bradford or Clausen if Shanahan thought he's found his new Elway. Even though we need the LT upgrade, the QB takes priority.

Actually I'm not calling for a quick fix, because my opinion is colored by a sound understanding of recent league history when it comes to QBs. Peyton Manning took several years to reach the AFC Championship and ultimately win a Super Bowl. Drew Brees was mediocre early in his SD days, then got better with experience, and eventually reached all-pro level. Matt Ryan was impressive his first two years but he hasn't yet made the leap to become an elite QB. Phillip Rivers and Eli Manning took a few years to really get up and running (Eli's not even elite, but he still took time to win the SB).

I understand that a QB will most likely take time to reach that level of dominant force. And I understand that it takes a strong team around him, too.

But the point remains, it's a lot easier to win a SB with a dominant QB and solid LT than it is to win one with a dominant LT and a solid QB. That's a much more important point than the fact that 1st round offensive lineman are more likely to pan out than 1st round QBs.

Yes but I think when you have the #4 pick, whether they have a better chance to pan out becomes pretty important. In fact that is one of the factors I'm using to form an opinion. I've read it written of Okung, "As close to can't miss as you can get." Samuels went out with an injury/condition that is career threatening. Levi Jones was picked up in the middle of the season because we needed a LT so bad. Good thing no one else wanted him.
Even the experts can't agree to who is the better prospect, Clausen or Bradford. Supposedly neither has an "elite" arm, Clausen is stronger but Bradford is more accurate etc.
If the question for this team this year is, do you take the position of greatest need with the #4 pick by taking the consensus best LT in the draft who is as close to can't miss as you can get, or, do you take a lottery ticket on an elite QB, assuming there even is one, and hope you pick the right one? Give me the tackle.

Don't get me wrong though, something has to be done about LT and the rest of the line. I don't think we'll ever win a SB with Levi Jones or Stephon Heyer starting at LT, we've got to get better at that spot. It's just I'd gladly get behind rolling the dice on Bradford or Clausen if Shanahan thought he's found his new Elway. Even though we need the LT upgrade, the QB takes priority.

If he thinks that, he'd be stupid not to take him. :)

I don't think Sam Bradford - - or any QB in this year's draft - - is the new John Elway. I suspect that Mike Shanahan - - having coached Elway and seen him on game film a thousand times - - will not equate any of the QBs coming out of college in 2010 with John Elway.

Redskins Draft Needs by Scouts, Inc.:

Washington Redskins

Top needs:
1. OT: LT Chris Samuels will likely retire and RT Stephon Heyer is inconsistent at both OT spots -- but he is not terrible. He is a restricted free agent and will likely be tendered and given one more year to improve. Levi Jones is an unrestricted free agent and not the answer at LT.

2. QB: What does the new coaching staff do with Jason Campbell? His contract could be up, but is he a guy you give one more shot to? He has good physical skills, but his supporting cast and coaching continuity has always been suspect. It's a big decision for this franchise and new coach Mike Shanahan.

3. RB: Shanahan knows Clinton Portis well, but that doesn't guarantee anything. Portis looks like an "old" 29-year-old back with durability issues and a questionable work ethic. Backup LaDell Betts is 30 and is coming off of knee surgery -- this is not a real stable position right now.

Other needs: OG, C, CB, S