The Mid Round QB fallacy

I don't think anyone thinks that Campbell is a franchise QB, I mean he could prove us wrong, but so far he's just a serviceable QB that could allow us to focus on the offensive line in the first round, rather than a QB. I think my opinion of getting a first-round QB would be different if we had Collins at QB right now or some other old veteran.Then again, if everyone shared my definition of franchise QB (and there's no reason anyone else should, except for clarity), I think everyone would agree that Jason Campbell is a franchise QB.

Speaking of Campbell, here's a good take on the QB situation by Matt Williamson (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/news/story?id=4911628) from Scouts, Inc.

Should the Redskins keep Jason Campbell?

For the most part, the answer is yes. I would tender him the highest offer with every intention of making him new coach Mike Shanahan's next quarterback project. But I would also listen to offers and would do diligent scouting on Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen in case an offer for Campbell was too good to pass up. I would prefer to add a franchise-caliber left tackle with that fourth overall draft pick, because I think the Redskins can get where they want to go with Campbell. The catch: They need to be patient with him and surround him with a vastly improved running game and offensive line. Campbell has gone through offensive system after offensive system at a remarkable rate, but he still shows glimpses of being a very solid NFL starting quarterback.

With Shanahan on board, Campbell finally would be fortunate enough to have some offensive stability in terms of the system, expectations and play-calling on a year-to-year basis. For once he wouldn't have to pick up a new language every offseason. Physically, Campbell has what it takes. He can move well enough to execute Shanahan's scheme, has a big strong arm to drive the ball down the field and is accurate enough. The tools are there, and he just had his best year as a starter. I contend that he could use a real confidence boost and some of the responsibility off his plate; he was simply asked to do way too much last year as nearly every aspect of the Redskins' offense crumbled around him. He was also sacked 43 times and was constantly under siege. But the beauty of sticking with Campbell is that the Redskins could then use the resources on building a quick zone-blocking offensive line and finding a ball carrier they can trust. Shanahan does have an impressive history of getting first-round production from mid-round running backs. I can live with the receiving corps that is in place and the defense.

There's no way you can simply count on getting a QB in the middle rounds to be your franchise player eventually. You would take a QB first to be the back-up, and only to play if he performed above expectation or the starter got hurt.


Not talking specifically about the Skins....

I don't think that teams with a decent starting QB in place at need to draft their QB top 5-10-15. (or teams with QB guru's).
I think the safer way to find a QB is to draft one after the 1st round every year; (plenty of team do this and try to groom a QB) or to nab a QB via FA or trade after the team is built.
Finding a QB via draft imo is a crap shoot no matter where you draft.
You just can't know.
Imo most QBs that are draft worthy are different by large %.
QBs like Heath Shuler fail unknown cast-offs like Kurt Warner succeed.
Because the QB is such a crap shoot taking one with a top pick 5 scares the heck out of me.
The lower you draft your QB the less investment there is and therefore more objective decisions can be made and if the QB isn't picking up the system (see JaMarcus Russell). Teams aren't worried about sunken cost because there isn't any and you have a good QB starting and you know you're gonna bring in another QB next year anyway.

I wish we would just drop the 'franchise' label.

I disagree about the draft producing elite QBs, we may have had a lull for a few years but I think Clausen, Luck, possibly Locker have the tools to be elite QBs. I think the prevalence of the spread offense in college has something to do with it too.

I think there is no such thing as an elite QB until they become one.
Imo there is no such thing as an eilte QB prospect independent of the team and situation around them.

I think the physical differences between most NFL caliber QB prospect is mere %.

I think in a raw skills competition like the combine or an arm strength throwing/accuracy/ touch contest some will do better in different areas but at the end of the day most will be in the same ballpark. And even the ones the are the tops in every category like Shuler or Leaf still aren't locks to become good QBs much less elite.

Without picking sides in the Bradford/Clausen vs. Okung at #4 pick, it bugs me when I see people say to 'just pick up a QB in the mid rounds' like that's a recipe for success in the league.. Doing a little research (very little) it's pretty clear that it's not.. Of the playoff teams the past 5 years, the QB breakdown is (non first round QB in parenthesis):

2009, 7-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brees, Warner, Brady, Romo, Favre)
2008, 9-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Warner, T. Jackson, Delhomme)
2007, 5-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Favre, T. Collins, Brady, Garrard, Romo, Garcia, Hasselbeck)
2006, 7-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brady, Brees, Romo, Hasselbeck, T. Green)
2005, 6-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brady, Plummer, Brunell, Hasselbeck, Garcia, Delhomme)

So nearly 60% of the playoff QB over the past 5 years have been 1st round picks. The exceptions have been the greatest 6th round pick in league history (Brady) 4 undrafted FA (Romo, Delhomme, Garcia, Warner)-including perhaps one of the most unlikely stories of all time in Warner. Three second round picks (Brees, Favre & Jackson) and 5 late round picks who eventually became something after playing behind established QB for years (Garrard, T. Green, Collins, Brunell, Hasselbeck).

So unless we're hoping for another miracle (Brady, Warner, Romo, Delhomme) or a slightly undervalued gem (Favre, Brees) or are hoping to find an undiscovered star (Hasselbeck, etc) then 'picking up a QB in the mid rounds' is likely not going to yield us anything beyond mediocre football in the future.

You're famous "Paint Rain"!

The folks at TheWarpath.net, for example, have an interesting conversation going about the potential for drafting a successful QB in the later rounds. Someone posting there as Paintrain (a name that I found intriguing when I was reading it as "paint rain," and a bit less so as "pain train," which I'm guessing it actually is) has broken down the playoff QBs from the last five years, and his numbers seem revealing (the names in parentheses are that year's non-first-round QBs):

A Whole Mess Of Links, Many Dealing With Quarterbacks (http://blog.redskins.com/2010/02/16/a-whole-mess-of-links/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)

Yo we need a first round qb, no question. To bank on finding one in the late round/free agency is ludacris. To find a qb in the late rounds that can win is just dumb luck, which we cannot rely on. If someone thinks that qb can win they will take him early. We can't just hope to luck out on some guy that the other teams keep passing on. The QB is too important, and we have to get it while we have the opportunity to. If we get another position now, it might be too late to get a qb next year if we do better. QB is the one position that we cannot pass up if we have a guy to get, no matter what.

Speaking of Campbell, here's a good take on the QB situation by Matt Williamson (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/news/story?id=4911628) from Scouts, Inc.

Should the Redskins keep Jason Campbell?

For the most part, the answer is yes. I would tender him the highest offer with every intention of making him new coach Mike Shanahan's next quarterback project. But I would also listen to offers and would do diligent scouting on Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen in case an offer for Campbell was too good to pass up. I would prefer to add a franchise-caliber left tackle with that fourth overall draft pick, because I think the Redskins can get where they want to go with Campbell. The catch: They need to be patient with him and surround him with a vastly improved running game and offensive line. Campbell has gone through offensive system after offensive system at a remarkable rate, but he still shows glimpses of being a very solid NFL starting quarterback.

With Shanahan on board, Campbell finally would be fortunate enough to have some offensive stability in terms of the system, expectations and play-calling on a year-to-year basis. For once he wouldn't have to pick up a new language every offseason. Physically, Campbell has what it takes. He can move well enough to execute Shanahan's scheme, has a big strong arm to drive the ball down the field and is accurate enough. The tools are there, and he just had his best year as a starter. I contend that he could use a real confidence boost and some of the responsibility off his plate; he was simply asked to do way too much last year as nearly every aspect of the Redskins' offense crumbled around him. He was also sacked 43 times and was constantly under siege. But the beauty of sticking with Campbell is that the Redskins could then use the resources on building a quick zone-blocking offensive line and finding a ball carrier they can trust. Shanahan does have an impressive history of getting first-round production from mid-round running backs. I can live with the receiving corps that is in place and the defense.

If Campbell wants to truly take the next step he'll need to do two things

1. Work on his deep ball accuracy: Despite his strong arm Jason is horrible when it comes to throwing the deep ball.

2. Reading defenses better: From what I've seen and heard Jason is only average in this category. If he wants to stay around he'll need to do a better job of looking off safeties and not staring down receivers as well as making proper pre-snap reads.

It might only be two bullet points but they're easily two of the most important aspects of being an NFL QB.

My argument really isn't about the signing, it's on the other end.

If a QB pick at No. 4 plays his way into a second contract, my point is moot.

The question I'm dealing with is: lets say that we draft a QB in 2010. We start with Campbell in 2010, and start, say 3-2, but injuries pile up and the team ends up distant in the division and we are 4-5. So we make the switch then and we finish 3-4 with the rookie QB. 7-9 finish. No discernible W/L production between the QBs.

But there might not (probably won't) be a 2011 season. If there's an agreement prior to 2012, we're talking about a half season of games by that point in their career. Now, I think contract is relevant. Because, at this point, how many years is the fourth overall pick given to make the playoffs before he is written off as an overdraft?

Hey, I fully understand that we don't (and shouldn't) have to make the decision on anyone's future before we make the draft choice. But with the magnitude of the contract, the point is that by the picks' first year as starter, it could be time for results or time to hit the road. And the pick has no real control over whether we play a football season in 2011 or not. But because of the magnitude of the contract, I do think it costs the player a year of development time if we don't play it.

So, yeah, I'd draft a quarterback this high if we had a team that could help him be successful right away without doing anything great. If he could solidify himself as the franchise PRIOR to the 2011 labor situation, then regardless of that outcome, I think we've filled an offensive hole. But I think that's asking a lot of a rookie. If there are as many questions about the quality of a QB draft pick a year from now as there are now, it's just going to be a cumbersome contract with no certainty.

Or put another way, if he's the best quarterback in the draft, take him. But if we're wrong on that, I'd rather flush 30 million down into the local sewer system tomorrow, and spend a high pick on a known issue. A top ten quarterback should be more than just a shot in the dark at greatness, it should actually be a great prospect.

OK I've read this over a couple times now and it's still not making a lick of sense to me. The contract structure and salary paid to the player has no bearing, either now or down the road. Whether you pick a LT or a QB at 4 overall, you're still talking about a big contract. But there's no contract risk with either player. If the QB fails and we have to cut bait, there will be no signing bonus acceleration because any bonus would have been paid to him in an uncapped year and thus not relevant under a capped year, if there ever is one again.

In fact, the uncapped year is the best time to dole out large bonuses.

In an uncapped world like baseball, you have contract risk with signing players to big contracts for long terms. But this rookie QB would not have a guaranteed contract like a Vernon Wells does.

Cap consequences are irrelevant, and cash consequences are not a concern with Dan Snyder in charge.

The risk you run with a QB is not financial in any way. It is only that you'll miss on the player. But higher risk, higher reward. An LT might pan out more often, but I don't really care to go 8-8.

If Campbell wants to truly take the next step he'll need to do two things

1. Work on his deep ball accuracy: Despite his strong arm Jason is horrible when it comes to throwing the deep ball.


Agreed that he needs to improve on the deep ball.

He needs to work on his deep ball accuracy on the go route/9 route.

There are some factors from a coaching stand point that will help JC improve also:

-better pass protection
o will help because he'll be more confident in the pocket
o there will be more chances to throw deep

-the receivers maintaining a more consistent 5 yard cushion from the sideline

-better running game to set-up play action

2. Reading defenses better: From what I've seen and heard Jason is only average in this category. If he wants to stay around he'll need to do a better job of looking off safeties and not staring down receivers as well as making proper pre-snap reads.

Gameplan and coaching will help him a great deal in this category.

Being able to dictate the coverages any QB faces greatly improves there success; and historically this something that Mike Shanahan has done in the past and i'm sure Mike has passed some of his tips along to his Kyle.

Further there will be huge difference in our current coaching staff's level of knowledge when it some to predicting and attack defenses then the previous on the job training offensive staff displayed.

There is no doubt in my mind that Kyle/LeFleur and Mike S. will have JC better prepared to read and attack any defenses this year.

Not talking specifically about the Skins....

I don't think that teams with a decent starting QB in place at need to draft their QB top 5-10-15. (or teams with QB guru's).
I think the safer way to find a QB is to draft one after the 1st round every year; (plenty of team do this and try to groom a QB) or to nab a QB via FA or trade after the team is built.
Finding a QB via draft imo is a crap shoot no matter where you draft.
You just can't know.
Imo most QBs that are draft worthy are different by large %.
QBs like Heath Shuler fail unknown cast-offs like Kurt Warner succeed.
Because the QB is such a crap shoot taking one with a top pick 5 scares the heck out of me.
The lower you draft your QB the less investment there is and therefore more objective decisions can be made and if the QB isn't picking up the system (see JaMarcus Russell). Teams aren't worried about sunken cost because there isn't any and you have a good QB starting and you know you're gonna bring in another QB next year anyway.

I wish we would just drop the 'franchise' label.



I think there is no such thing as an elite QB until they become one.
Imo there is no such thing as an eilte QB prospect independent of the team and situation around them.

I think the physical differences between most NFL caliber QB prospect is mere %.

I think in a raw skills competition like the combine or an arm strength throwing/accuracy/ touch contest some will do better in different areas but at the end of the day most will be in the same ballpark. And even the ones the are the tops in every category like Shuler or Leaf still aren't locks to become good QBs much less elite.

Good points 30Gut. I think the bolded part is why it's been said that drafting a QB high who doesn't work out can set a franchise back 3-5 years. Teams spend so much time trying to justify the pick instead of cutting their losses and moving on. Not to mention they've probably missed out on a quality player at another position.

Agreed that he needs to improve on the deep ball.

He needs to work on his deep ball accuracy on the go route/9 route.

There are some factors from a coaching stand point that will help JC improve also:

-better pass protection
o will help because he'll be more confident in the pocket
o there will be more chances to throw deep

-the receivers maintaining a more consistent 5 yard cushion from the sideline

-better running game to set-up play action



Gameplan and coaching will help him a great deal in this category.

Being able to dictate the coverages any QB faces greatly improves there success; and historically this something that Mike Shanahan has done in the past and i'm sure Mike has passed some of his tips along to his Kyle.

Further there will be huge difference in our current coaching staff's level of knowledge when it some to predicting and attack defenses then the previous on the job training offensive staff displayed.

There is no doubt in my mind that Kyle/LeFleur and Mike S. will have JC better prepared to read and attack any defenses this year.

Very good points.