The Mid Round QB fallacy

Hey, I did watch it, but they had all 11 coaches on in a half hour, there want much philosophy talked about. The TE coach interview was [paraphrased] its great to coach 2 top tight ends like cooley and davis right? Yes I have watched cooley a lot because tony gonzalez would always watch him. Cool to know but not very substantive. They all were one to two sentence clips. I think haslett and shanahan said more but still nothing substantive.
now that's a compliment if I've ever seen one

2000-2010 SB QB's with round selected in nfl draft:

2000
W- K.Warner-UDFA---L-S.McNair-1
2001
W-T.Dilfer-1---L-K.Collins-1
2002
W-T.Brady-6---L-K.Warner-UDFA
2003
W-B.Johnson-9---L-R.Gannon-4
2004
W-T. Brady-6---L-J.Delhomme-UDFA
2005
W-T. Brady-6---L-D.McNabb-1
2006
W-B.Roethlisberger-1---L-M.Hasslebeck-6
2007
W-P.Manning-1---L-R.Grossman-1
2008
W-E.Manning-1---L-T.Brady-6
2009
W-B.Roethlisberger-1---K.Warner-UDFA
2010
W-D.Brees-2---L-P.Manning-1

Out of the last 11 SB's, 6 times the winning QB was not drafted in the first round.
and in 8 there was a 1st round QB in the game

...

When you consider that our needs between the positions are certainly NOT equal, the confidence level in the QB has to be extremely high to justify the pick. There are people here who believe Clausen is the best QB, and those who believe Bradford is the best. The point is, if it's not really, really, REALLY obvious to the front office who the best of the two is, (and if it is, that's a very easy BPA pick), then this is without a doubt the wrong course of action.
good perspective Tripp, at least if it's that clear cut

it also says that you can probably pick up a decent tackle nearly every year I think though

But still, sack up and put the chips on the table, I'm tired of being a fringe playoff team every single year. Nothing transforms your franchise like an elite QB.
another great post itt

gtripp, if your running the show, who do YOU draft?

and in 8 there was a 1st round QB in the game

And of the 22 QB's involved in the 11 games, 12 times the QB wasn't drafted in the first round. I'm not sure how much any of this matters, not much probably, but I think it shows you don't have to draft a QB in the first round to go, or even win the Super Bowl.

To tell you the truth I'm just enjoying the discussion. Either QB could turn out to be busts or maybe just one...OR they could turn out to be the Manning/Brady combo of the next generation. I like Bradford, others such as Sammy like Clausen. Sammy may be right. And just as Schneed said he wouldn't be upset if we took Okung, I wouldn't be upset with one of the QB's, especially Bradford. :)

I think my argument for Okung is sound, but I agree with SmootSmack who originally got this whole thing going by saying we shouldn't reach for a LT just for the sake of taking one. It's JMO that we need a LT more than we need a QB to win at this point in time. That combined with the frustration of trying to fix our o-line anyway possible except drafting them high puts me on the side of drafting o-line first.

Last year I wanted Alex Mack and thought we could trade down, pick up another pick, and have our replacement for Rabach. Now I'm certainly not disappointed with Orakpo. I love the guy and I'm glad we have him, but we still haven't REALLY addressed the Center position yet and another year has gone by. Still....not getting the guy you want is not the end of the world and in some cases it works out better that you didn't. :)

lol i dont think you understand. the whole fake argument of my point was SO we could draft Tebow. All you basically did was agree that we should take an LT in the 1st round haha. I dont think i meant the pick seriously but there are some good points in taking him.

An additional point/bonus to taking Tebow, with all the shitty seasons we've been having since 1990, this year we could USE god on our side LMAO

You'll get no argument from me there. LOL. But with so many needs and the chance to get another good tackle, center, or RB in the second, I sure don't want to use it on Tebow. We have enough TE's. :)

But what if they believe the current guy is a franchise guy AND that Clausen is also a franchise guy. Then what is the proper course of action if Clausen slips to No. 4?

And if we have the No. 4 pick in a year where the Quarterbacks are mid-round guys...tough crap, I guess. Go get something useful with the pick. You're probably right when you say we won't be picking top five again, but the NFL Draft appears to have slowed if not stopped producing elite NFL quarterbacks. I think we're in an age where you pretty much have to make one (from raw tools).If the braintrust believes Campbell is a franchise guy they should have their heads examined. :)

That being said, if they feel he's a franchise guy, sign him to a long term deal and be done with it, then draft the LT. If they don't feel either Clausen/Bradford is a franchise guy, but rather mid-rounders, then you're absolutely right...tough crap, get something useful (LT).

I disagree about the draft producing elite QBs, we may have had a lull for a few years but I think Clausen, Luck, possibly Locker have the tools to be elite QBs. I think the prevalence of the spread offense in college has something to do with it too.

If the braintrust believes Campbell is a franchise guy they should have their heads examined. :)

That being said, if they feel he's a franchise guy, sign him to a long term deal and be done with it, then draft the LT. If they don't feel either Clausen/Bradford is a franchise guy, but rather mid-rounders, then you're absolutely right...tough crap, get something useful (LT).

I disagree about the draft producing elite QBs, we may have had a lull for a few years but I think Clausen, Luck, possibly Locker have the tools to be elite QBs. I think the prevalence of the spread offense in college has something to do with it too.

I don't think anyone thinks that Campbell is a franchise QB, I mean he could prove us wrong, but so far he's just a serviceable QB that could allow us to focus on the offensive line in the first round, rather than a QB. I think my opinion of getting a first-round QB would be different if we had Collins at QB right now or some other old veteran.

I disagree about the draft producing elite QBs, we may have had a lull for a few years but I think Clausen, Luck, possibly Locker have the tools to be elite QBs. I think the prevalence of the spread offense in college has something to do with it too.I think the spread has a lot to do with it. There are hundreds of competent college QBs out there but NFL teams, on the whole, want to take these guys to the next level and make them do something completely foreign. That's going to eliminate a lot of potentially great players. And so there are like 10 colleges who, in any given year, might send a quarterback to the NFL draft who gets taken highly.

And because of the market conditions (spread quarterbacks undervalued, or not valued at all), guys are coming out earlier and earlier, which is of course, a negative indicator of potential. But it's worth a lot of cash, because the guys who are waiting around are getting picked apart as prospects.

And so the NFL draft isn't producing anymore Mannings, or Rivers', or Carson Palmers anymore...I think the polished, can't miss quarterback prospect is probably a thing of the past. Maybe once every three years, you'll get a Matt Ryan. Christian Ponder could be that guy next year, as they are incredibly similar. And I like Jacory Harris in a year or two.

But I think: if you're going to have to culture a successful environment anyway, why spend the top five pick on a quarterback? Why inflate the price of an asset beyond what it's actually worth--if you're the one going to be paying the bill anyway?