D'BOYZ
10-10-2009, 06:08 AM
THE DON'S
Crystal Ball
2009 SEASON
WEEK 5 PICKS
By DonCanabis/D'BOYZ
Analyst/Godfather
http://i46.photobucket.com/albums/f125/atw217/brando.png
Well another week has gone bye and even if predicting games straight up has become a lot easier the spreads have gone a little crazy teams are winning by big margins and lines of -9 or more which used to tell you to go for the underdog most of the times now it looks like normal lines. The NFL used to be a league that games ended by close margins at least since Free agency started but with all the rules changes to help the offenses it looks like this changes have finally caught up with NFL parity. So because of these changes I decide to do more research and change my approach to this week’s picks.
Ok some Quick Hits from last week.
•From the past 4 weeks teams with at least a -7 spread have gone 13-7 that’s if you go for the favorite team in this case you’ll get it right 65%.Last week of the 7 games with a spread -7 or higher went 6-1. That means that 1 Vegas it’s putting bigger lines and still teams are covering them.
•When a good team has gone against a bad team with a -7 spread or higher the better teams have won 11-1; that’s 92%, but when the matchups are bad or the teams are similar in talent (good or bad) the record is 2-6. So pick the bad matchups a Pit vs Det for instance.
•When the line has been -10 or higher the record is 5-2. This tells us that we shouldn’t be scared of double digits lines if the matchup is good for the favorite team.
•Some other good stats to take a look is that Home teams have beat the spread (either in favor or against) 51% of the times with a 32-30 record but from the past 2 weeks since Vegas has had a better feel of the teams and what lines too put Home teams have beat the spread 66% of the time with a 20-10 record.
•Last one Favorite teams have beat the spread 56% of the time this season with a 35-27 record but also for the past two weeks they have won 66% of the time with also a 20-10 record
On to the games
Cincinnati at Baltimore -8.5 Ovr/Und 42
Ok Baltimore’s defense hasn’t looked like the old days but Cincinnati’s defense looks really good. Cincinnati has been one of the two surprises this year I expected them to do good but after the week 1 loss to Denver which I expected to do bad I lost a little faith but since that not only they’ve stepped up but we have seen Denver is doing good to.
Straight: Bal
Spread:Cin
Ovr/Und: Ovr
Minnesota at St Louis 10 Ovr/Und 41
The Vikings is playing great in all fronts even 60 year old Favre is playing good. The defense is not only stopping everybody they’re getting the ball back and putting points. If you find anything good to say about the Rams please let me know. Can you call the Limbaugh news good?
Straight: Min
Spread: Min
Ovr/Und: Ovr
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia -14.5 Ovr/Und 42
I hate big lines like this one because 1 thing wrong can screw things over but I have to go with the stats Home teams have cover the lines good teams have cover the lines of -7 or higher 11 out of 12; plus, they are coming from the bye healthy and ready to go.
Straight: Phi
Spread: Phi
Ovr/Und: Und
Washington at Carolina -3.5 Ovr/Und 37.5
Washington almost lost a game to the now 0-4 Bucs, we all know they ended the losing streak of the lions and also barely beat the now 0-4 Rams, if a team needs a bye to regroup is this one. Carolina just came from the bye and they need this Win bad they might not make the playoffs but this game is their season.
Straight: Car
Spread: Car
Ovr/Und: Und
Pittsburgh at Detroit 10.5 Ovr/Und 44
If you’re a Steelers fan you have to like your offense scoring 38 points last week and not only see their running game well run, but also see one of their last year’s draft picks that looked like early busts shine; but also, if you are a Steelers fan you have to be worried that San Diego came back and scored 21 points in the 4th and almost took that game. The Lions were doing pretty well against Chicago before Stafford injury, well guess who isn’t playing this week.
Straight: PIT
Spread: PIT
Ovr/Und: OVR
Oakland at New York Giants -15 Ovr/Und 38
Well it looks like Eli will play but I don’t think he should first they play the raiders who not only are playing bad but are filled with injuries, second he will have trouble with his step and will hurt his accuracy, they will win this game they have the talent but it will be closer that it should.
Straight:NYG
Spread: Oak
Ovr/Und: Ovr
Dallas at Kansas City 8.5 Ovr/Und 42.5
Well by now Dallas has shown they can beat bad teams by more than 10 points and lose close games in the final quarter against good teams. They have some key injuries they need to fix so it’s good they have the bye next week plus, they need to find themselves if they want any chance against Atlanta after the bye.
Straight:Dal
Spread:Dal
Ovr/Und:Und
Cleveland at Buffalo -6 Ovr/Und 41
Hmmm I do believe Buffalo will win this game but are they 6 points better than Cleveland? I still can’t believe all the crap Mangini is doing to that team. Go with the Home team
Straight: Buf
Spread: Buf
Ovr/Und: Und
Atlanta at San Francisco -2.5 Ovr/Und 40.5
Just thinking about this 49ers defense going after Ryan makes me shiver. Atlanta doesn’t travel well and haven’t found their running game which took pressure of Ryan believe me they won’t find it this week.
Straight:SF
Spread: SF
Ovr/Und: Ovr
Houston at Arizona -5.5 Ovr/Und 50
Could Arizona really start 0-3 at home this year? I don’t think so at least not after the bye, Houston still have problems at defense and their best passrusher is hurt he will play but I don’t think he will be a huge factor. Give Warren time and he will destroy you.
Straight: Ari
Spread: Ari
Ovr/Und: Und
Jacksonville at Seattle -1.5 Ovr/Und 44
It looks like Hasselbeck will play but with this history with injuries and still not 100% how good will he be. The jaguars are playing better each week it seems that the young kids are finally buying what Del Rio it’s preaching.
Straight: Jac
Spread: Jac
Ovr/Und: Und
New England at Denver 3 Ovr/Und 41
Dallas underestimated this team last week especially after going up 10-0 quickly in the 1st.Brady won’t do the same, these fan base is loud and can mess up the other team but it’s not like Brady hasn’t been in this position before. I do believe the patriots will score some points and I don’t believe Denver has the offense to catch up.
Straight: NE
Spread: NE
Ovr/Und: Und
Indianapolis at Tennessee : 3.5 Ovr/Und 46
Well like I said last week Payton is playing nasty… Tennessee is playing the bad kind of nasty I would love to have better hope but can’t.
Straight:Ind
Spread: Ind
Ovr/Und: Ovr
New York Jets at Miami : 1.5 Ovr/Und 36.5
Miami delivered for me last week big why wouldn’t I take them again at home. One thing the only team that stopped the WildCat last year Rex Ryan and Baltimore so I expect that again this year.
Straight:NYJ
Spread:NYJ
Ovr/Und: Und
Hot Picks (10-14) 41%
Minnesota (league)
Indianapolis (league)
New England (league)
Cincinnati
Dallas
Oakland
Crystal Ball
2009 SEASON
WEEK 5 PICKS
By DonCanabis/D'BOYZ
Analyst/Godfather
http://i46.photobucket.com/albums/f125/atw217/brando.png
Well another week has gone bye and even if predicting games straight up has become a lot easier the spreads have gone a little crazy teams are winning by big margins and lines of -9 or more which used to tell you to go for the underdog most of the times now it looks like normal lines. The NFL used to be a league that games ended by close margins at least since Free agency started but with all the rules changes to help the offenses it looks like this changes have finally caught up with NFL parity. So because of these changes I decide to do more research and change my approach to this week’s picks.
Ok some Quick Hits from last week.
•From the past 4 weeks teams with at least a -7 spread have gone 13-7 that’s if you go for the favorite team in this case you’ll get it right 65%.Last week of the 7 games with a spread -7 or higher went 6-1. That means that 1 Vegas it’s putting bigger lines and still teams are covering them.
•When a good team has gone against a bad team with a -7 spread or higher the better teams have won 11-1; that’s 92%, but when the matchups are bad or the teams are similar in talent (good or bad) the record is 2-6. So pick the bad matchups a Pit vs Det for instance.
•When the line has been -10 or higher the record is 5-2. This tells us that we shouldn’t be scared of double digits lines if the matchup is good for the favorite team.
•Some other good stats to take a look is that Home teams have beat the spread (either in favor or against) 51% of the times with a 32-30 record but from the past 2 weeks since Vegas has had a better feel of the teams and what lines too put Home teams have beat the spread 66% of the time with a 20-10 record.
•Last one Favorite teams have beat the spread 56% of the time this season with a 35-27 record but also for the past two weeks they have won 66% of the time with also a 20-10 record
On to the games
Cincinnati at Baltimore -8.5 Ovr/Und 42
Ok Baltimore’s defense hasn’t looked like the old days but Cincinnati’s defense looks really good. Cincinnati has been one of the two surprises this year I expected them to do good but after the week 1 loss to Denver which I expected to do bad I lost a little faith but since that not only they’ve stepped up but we have seen Denver is doing good to.
Straight: Bal
Spread:Cin
Ovr/Und: Ovr
Minnesota at St Louis 10 Ovr/Und 41
The Vikings is playing great in all fronts even 60 year old Favre is playing good. The defense is not only stopping everybody they’re getting the ball back and putting points. If you find anything good to say about the Rams please let me know. Can you call the Limbaugh news good?
Straight: Min
Spread: Min
Ovr/Und: Ovr
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia -14.5 Ovr/Und 42
I hate big lines like this one because 1 thing wrong can screw things over but I have to go with the stats Home teams have cover the lines good teams have cover the lines of -7 or higher 11 out of 12; plus, they are coming from the bye healthy and ready to go.
Straight: Phi
Spread: Phi
Ovr/Und: Und
Washington at Carolina -3.5 Ovr/Und 37.5
Washington almost lost a game to the now 0-4 Bucs, we all know they ended the losing streak of the lions and also barely beat the now 0-4 Rams, if a team needs a bye to regroup is this one. Carolina just came from the bye and they need this Win bad they might not make the playoffs but this game is their season.
Straight: Car
Spread: Car
Ovr/Und: Und
Pittsburgh at Detroit 10.5 Ovr/Und 44
If you’re a Steelers fan you have to like your offense scoring 38 points last week and not only see their running game well run, but also see one of their last year’s draft picks that looked like early busts shine; but also, if you are a Steelers fan you have to be worried that San Diego came back and scored 21 points in the 4th and almost took that game. The Lions were doing pretty well against Chicago before Stafford injury, well guess who isn’t playing this week.
Straight: PIT
Spread: PIT
Ovr/Und: OVR
Oakland at New York Giants -15 Ovr/Und 38
Well it looks like Eli will play but I don’t think he should first they play the raiders who not only are playing bad but are filled with injuries, second he will have trouble with his step and will hurt his accuracy, they will win this game they have the talent but it will be closer that it should.
Straight:NYG
Spread: Oak
Ovr/Und: Ovr
Dallas at Kansas City 8.5 Ovr/Und 42.5
Well by now Dallas has shown they can beat bad teams by more than 10 points and lose close games in the final quarter against good teams. They have some key injuries they need to fix so it’s good they have the bye next week plus, they need to find themselves if they want any chance against Atlanta after the bye.
Straight:Dal
Spread:Dal
Ovr/Und:Und
Cleveland at Buffalo -6 Ovr/Und 41
Hmmm I do believe Buffalo will win this game but are they 6 points better than Cleveland? I still can’t believe all the crap Mangini is doing to that team. Go with the Home team
Straight: Buf
Spread: Buf
Ovr/Und: Und
Atlanta at San Francisco -2.5 Ovr/Und 40.5
Just thinking about this 49ers defense going after Ryan makes me shiver. Atlanta doesn’t travel well and haven’t found their running game which took pressure of Ryan believe me they won’t find it this week.
Straight:SF
Spread: SF
Ovr/Und: Ovr
Houston at Arizona -5.5 Ovr/Und 50
Could Arizona really start 0-3 at home this year? I don’t think so at least not after the bye, Houston still have problems at defense and their best passrusher is hurt he will play but I don’t think he will be a huge factor. Give Warren time and he will destroy you.
Straight: Ari
Spread: Ari
Ovr/Und: Und
Jacksonville at Seattle -1.5 Ovr/Und 44
It looks like Hasselbeck will play but with this history with injuries and still not 100% how good will he be. The jaguars are playing better each week it seems that the young kids are finally buying what Del Rio it’s preaching.
Straight: Jac
Spread: Jac
Ovr/Und: Und
New England at Denver 3 Ovr/Und 41
Dallas underestimated this team last week especially after going up 10-0 quickly in the 1st.Brady won’t do the same, these fan base is loud and can mess up the other team but it’s not like Brady hasn’t been in this position before. I do believe the patriots will score some points and I don’t believe Denver has the offense to catch up.
Straight: NE
Spread: NE
Ovr/Und: Und
Indianapolis at Tennessee : 3.5 Ovr/Und 46
Well like I said last week Payton is playing nasty… Tennessee is playing the bad kind of nasty I would love to have better hope but can’t.
Straight:Ind
Spread: Ind
Ovr/Und: Ovr
New York Jets at Miami : 1.5 Ovr/Und 36.5
Miami delivered for me last week big why wouldn’t I take them again at home. One thing the only team that stopped the WildCat last year Rex Ryan and Baltimore so I expect that again this year.
Straight:NYJ
Spread:NYJ
Ovr/Und: Und
Hot Picks (10-14) 41%
Minnesota (league)
Indianapolis (league)
New England (league)
Cincinnati
Dallas
Oakland