The only two Good Decisions Jim Zorn Made vs St. Louis

I'm not sure how that author gets the numbers for his 'model' so its hard for me to put much faith in his 'model' but using his own metrics:



All that matters imo are the odds for success of the play at hand and we went with the lesser option.

If that were the case you would call for a one yard dive everytime on 3rd and 10. Why, because it's a 99% chance that you will succeed. You have to look at the what was left to do in order for us to win the game, and if that is your focus, you go for it, don't pass it, and give it to someone who does not fumble(lest you see a fumble return for a td like in last year's st louis game).

If we get the FG, we probably squib kick, but whatever, they have a chance for a decent return, and then they are airing it out, against 2 CBs who had less then stellar days.

I think playing the odds for winning, it was the right call, and really even the play call kept the ball from being put in a precarious situation.

the big IFs in this game if Sellers holds on or DT catches it, or JC doesn't underthrow Kelly.(that still would have been awesome to see him get his first(i believe) NFL TD on a 80ish yard pass play.

Going it for it was kind of stupid cause a fg could've won the game. I think you've gotta kick it there. But fine, if you want to go for it then have some damn variety in your run game. Everyone knew where the ball was going. I honestly think we need to try the wildcat w/ Betts and Portis. We need to do something, anything at this point to try and score more points.

really a fg there would have won the game. so did we lose because we didn't kick the fg?

I agree with Zorn on this one. That was a smart decison. When you take into account the feel of the game. That close to the end zone with Haynesworth on the field is dangerous.

I'm typically all about being aggressive on the goal line. I think we made a mistake when we kicked the FG early and when we didn't late. Yes, if you get a yard, the game is over. But what gave Zorn any idea that we could get that yard? Fact is, statistics or not, it's important to look at how the game has been going. All it would have taken were 2-3 good completions to put the Rams in FG distance, which is something Bulger can do. Luckily, our D stood up. However, forcing the Rams to get a TD is another story.

I'm typically all about being aggressive on the goal line. I think we made a mistake when we kicked the FG early and when we didn't late. Yes, if you get a yard, the game is over. But what gave Zorn any idea that we could get that yard? Fact is, statistics or not, it's important to look at how the game has been going. All it would have taken were 2-3 good completions to put the Rams in FG distance, which is something Bulger can do. Luckily, our D stood up. However, forcing the Rams to get a TD is another story.

Did we run up the middle at all in this game? I mean it seems like all we were doing was running to the left (and we ran to the left on that 4th down).

I'm not sure how that author gets the numbers for his 'model' so its hard for me to put much faith in his 'model' but using his own metrics:



All that matters imo are the odds for success of the play at hand and we went with the lesser option.

I think you are totally missing the point. This isn't some fancy statistical theory here. All the calculations are result based. He made the right decision. In that same situation 1000 times we win more games going for it both times than not because the outcome percentages, as long as they hold true, dictate it. All Tripp has shown is the mathematical algorithm that replicates proper human decision making in this situation. Which option gives us the best chance to WIN THE GAME? Going for it did.

It's always the right decision when it works. This time it worked acording to script, but the fact the Rams had no time-outs left at the time played into Zorn's decision. It may have been the right decision in conjunction with math, but I believe 90% of the coaches in the league would have kcked the FG in that situation.

Going it for it was kind of stupid cause a fg could've won the game. I think you've gotta kick it there. But fine, if you want to go for it then have some damn variety in your run game. Everyone knew where the ball was going. I honestly think we need to try the wildcat w/ Betts and Portis. We need to do something, anything at this point to try and score more points.

Actually if we had gone for it and converted then we would have won the game, period. Nail in the coffin. Game over.

If we kick the field goal, then we give the ball to the Rams after a kickoff. The Rams could have run the kickoff back for a td. They could have thrown a td pass.

Kicking the field goal would not wrap up the game the way that going for it and getting one yard would have. I personally liked the aggressiveness of the call to just put the game away right then, right there.

One thing I think we should acknowledge is our defense. That was a prime place for Blache to throw out some serious crap prevent defense and he didn't really. He made sure the secondary didn't let anyone behind them but he still maintained a relatively basic set. It was the right call.

I don't recall seeing Smoot in the game. I saw Tryon though, any word on that? Anyway, I remember the Leigh Torrece/Avery bomb that beat us last year. I was scurrrrred.