North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?

For those thinking China has a handle on this:
From Yahoo news (http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/north-korea-nuclear-threats-classic-propaganda-ian-bremmer-152540401.html) (don't hate the source):

Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, a global political risk research and consulting firm, joined The Daily Ticker remotely from New Dehli to discuss whether Washington should be concerned about the North Korean threats.

...

Bremmer was in China over the last couple of days and met with Chinese officials. "They wanted to make it clear that they hoped the U.S. recognized how much more the Chinese are trying to do to push the North Koreans," he says. "[And] they made it clear they don't really have a direct line to Kim Jon-un right now."

"That should worry us," Bremmer adds.

And now for today's pronouncement:
North Korea warns foreigners to leave South (http://news.yahoo.com/north-korea-suspends-last-project-south-putin-cites-001526987.html)

Yes, I am buying into this guy thinks he can start, and win, a war on the Korean peninsula. I also believe that he deems respect very important(along the ways a mafia boss might look at respect), and that when he sees his warnings being so totally laughed at and ignored, both by SK citizens and foreign governments, he may very well become of the mindset "I'll show them who's effing around".

While I do think a missile test allows him to spin it as the forces of the DPRK standing up to the US, I'm not sure it's enough to settle his ego, or need for respect from the rest of the world.

Seems like the appropriate response (as opposed to the my ship's bigger than your ship gunship mentality of earlier)

Is the U.S. working to de-escalate a North Korean standoff? (http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/u-working-escalate-north-korean-standoff-094001335--politics.html)

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/390452/North-Korea-to-launch-missile-TOMORROW-after-warning-foreigners-to-evacuate-South??

NORTH Korea has completed preparations for a mid-range missile launch tomorrow from its east coast, officials in Seoul have revealed – just hours after foreigners living in South Korea were warned to quit the country.


Eventually, if you keep talking shit, you are going to get smacked in the mouth. Telling people to leave SK, and then firing a "test" missile. It's asking to be attacked.


I still don't think this is Jong Un's doing, but more the people behind him. I think he still has to show his people and generals that he's a top dog just like his dad and grand pops.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/390452/North-Korea-to-launch-missile-TOMORROW-after-warning-foreigners-to-evacuate-South??




Eventually, if you keep talking shit, you are going to get smacked in the mouth. Telling people to leave SK, and then firing a "test" missile. It's asking to be attacked.


I still don't think this is Jong Un's doing, but more the people behind him. I think he still has to show his people and generals that he's a top dog just like his dad and grand pops.

I just don't understand why people(media) assume this is a test. I hope that the military isn't assuming that. I think he believes his country to be on equal par with the US now that he has useful nukes, and his military believes in the strength of numbers in terms of soldiers.

Its certainly possible it may not be a test.
Our analysts have stated that they do not have a missle that can reach Guam.
If that is correct and its not a test then South Korea or Japan will get nuked tomorrow.

Or we will shoot it down right after it enters international space.
Imagine the can of worms that will open.

I just don't understand why people(media) assume this is a test. I hope that the military isn't assuming that. I think he believes his country to be on equal par with the US now that he has useful nukes, and his military believes in the strength of numbers in terms of soldiers.

If it were an actual attack, do you think they'd be so obvious about it? One would think they'd be more sneaky.

Also, saying North Korea has "useful" nukes is a bit of an overstatement. they've only got a handful of nukes, and i'd be shocked if anyof them were even hiroshima-grade. Also, their missles dont have the range to go much further than Japan. I'm not saying countries in the region shouldnt be worried, but i'm not worried about N Koreas actual threat to the US.

The US and allied countries have thousands of nukes with essentially unlimited range, most of which are significantly more powerful than anything North Korea has.

North Korea might think its on par with the US, but its not.

Japan getting hit by a NK nuke would just be sad, honestly in the great scheme of things what did Japan do to anybody to be the worlds nuclear wasteland?

I certainly don't think that NK is on par with us, but they do, and in terms of useful nukes, it only takes a few IF they use them. For all the nukes we have, there is no chance in this world that we would nuke NK, even if they nuked Japan. Korea would be a land war, and if NK felt they could launch a few nukes to equalize the battlefield, I think they might. They hate Japan, and have re-run articles on Japan's poor record when Korea was a colony of Japan.

I really hope that I've just bought into the paranoia, and that it all settles down in the next few days.

Japan getting hit by a NK nuke would just be sad, honestly in the great scheme of things what did Japan do to anybody to be the worlds nuclear wasteland?

I certainly don't think that NK is on par with us, but they do, and in terms of useful nukes, it only takes a few IF they use them. For all the nukes we have, there is no chance in this world that we would nuke NK, even if they nuked Japan. Korea would be a land war, and if NK felt they could launch a few nukes to equalize the battlefield, I think they might. They hate Japan, and have re-run articles on Japan's poor record when Korea was a colony of Japan.

I really hope that I've just bought into the paranoia, and that it all settles down in the next few days.

I think the days of land wars are over. Theres simply no reason for it. I'd see tons of stealth areal bombings and Guerrilla warefare. theres no reason to send thousands of soldiers into battle if you can send in a few seal teams to paint targets and let planes take em out.

I also dont think the NK could nuke South Korea or Japan without equivalent retalliation.

I think the days of land wars are over. Theres simply no reason for it. I'd see tons of stealth areal bombings and Guerrilla warefare. theres no reason to send thousands of soldiers into battle if you can send in a few seal teams to paint targets and let planes take em out.

I also dont think the NK could nuke South Korea or Japan without equivalent retalliation.

How would you then hold the ground, rebuild the infrastructure and convert the people to happy quasi-Americans?

At some point you have to put boots on the ground unless it's just a retributive strike/scorched earth deal.