Will Jason Campbell return?

What if I told you that he already took that huge step forward last year (in my opinion), sometime between weeks 2-5, or possibly weeks 11-13, but that it was masked by the fact that every one else on offense was so terrible.

Then, as my logic follows, if the offense around Campbell is just a little less horriffic, he should pick up right where he left off, at a pro bowl level.

Here's a tip, if you have to point to a single (one) season as evidence that a player can't get it done, you're likely seeing too many other variables to know. You see his improvements as "super-slow", in the data, but the rest of us just see them as "there," and need more information to see if a breakout is coming/has already come.

My analysis earlier was based on 36 games started.

I don't really want to. But damn, that ring is shiny.I don't actually know that it's Manning, but that's who I thought of when I saw Paintrain's numbers.

I don't know if I like a E. Manning example because he's probably not as good a QB as Campbell, just playing the odds. His play was a big reason why the Giants won the SB two years ago. But whose to say that if our defense could have gotten Jason into the playoffs at 10-6 by not imploding down the stretch, and staying in the top quadrant of defenses, he wouldn't have surprised everyone and led Zorn to a super bowl in his first year as HC?

I mean, yeah, pie in the sky scenario. But no less realistic than calling a Giants championship in 2007 or a Cardinals championship this year (which didn't happen, but you know, no fault to the QB position).

I don't actually know that it's Manning, but that's who I thought of when I saw Paintrain's numbers.

I don't know if I like a E. Manning example because he's probably not as good a QB as Campbell, just playing the odds. His play was a big reason why the Giants won the SB two years ago. But whose to say that if our defense could have gotten Jason into the playoffs at 10-6 by not imploding down the stretch, and staying in the top quadrant of defenses, he wouldn't have surprised everyone and led Zorn to a super bowl in his first year as HC?

I mean, yeah, pie in the sky scenario. But no less realistic than calling a Giants championship in 2007 or a Cardinals championship this year (which didn't happen, but you know, no fault to the QB position).


G-What imploded last year that led to that decrease in projection? The O-line right? So how is Derrick Dockery alone going to fix that? And in turn, if the Oline flounders again due to injury(entirely possible), then Jason's gone. Possibly to flourish somewhere else. I don't think there's another way to look at it. Right or wrong.

My analysis earlier was based on 36 games started.But then you aren't seeing an upwards trend, or any trend at all. That would just be a weighted average of a QBs developmental portion of his career.

I hear people using the term make-or-break around Campbell this year. To an extent, I agree. Right now, he still carries the "young prospect" label, as the first four years of anyones career tend to be the developmental stage. But he's 27. So at the end of this year, he's going to turn 28, and he'll either have "franchise Quarterback", or "journeyman".

The statistics suggest that he'll be a franchise QB. But that's probability, not certainty. The question if he doesn't fulfill his promise this year is not whether we keep him or not, that's pretty irrelevant. It's why he was unable to live up to promise, i.e. what do we need to do to make sure the next surefire prospect does not fail. It could be a team thing, or it could be structural-organizational.

I don't think 'franchise' quarterbacks throw as few td's as Jason is trending towards continuing to do. He's clearly not a consistent scoring threat for us. That consistency is based on the limited data we've got. If he makes it as a franchise qb, it wont be with the 'skins.

I don't think 'franchise' quarterbacks throw as few td's as Jason is trending towards continuing to do. He's clearly not a consistent scoring threat for us. That consistency is based on the limited data we've got. If he makes it as a franchise qb, it wont be with the 'skins.

You don't need my help but I'll take your side on this. Totally agree.

G-What imploded last year that led to that decrease in projection? The O-line right? So how is Derrick Dockery alone going to fix that? And in turn, if the Oline flounders again due to injury(entirely possible), then Jason's gone. Possibly to flourish somewhere else. I don't think there's another way to look at it. Right or wrong.If Samuels doesn't get injured, Campbell's December looks very very different.

But it wasn't just the OLine. You could see it in Zorn's gameplanning. Campbell and Portis were the only guys you could trust to run any play right. Moss had no big play ability, ARE dropped off the face of the planet, Thomas and Kelly were useless, Yoder played himself off the field, even Sellers made two huge game changing mistakes in that month. Cooley fumbled a game away. And THEN the protection from not only the OL, but the usually dependable Portis was crap.

So yeah, there was a lot of heat on Zorn because it was an entire offensive breakdown. And Campbell showed a lot of poise in altering his game to pick up a lot of the offensive slack. Became a leader, if you want to use those terms. Leaders tend to arise out of adverse situations, not because things are going well.

And he played all 16 games. Which is very underrated, IMO. Because after the Cincinnati loss, there was nothing left to gain from leaving him out there behind that line. But not only did he not break down, he made some week to week improvements, and almost won the SF game singlehandedly.

So I like Campbell for that, and I like Campbell for his composure this offseason. I don't know if he will turn into a great quarterback, but I would suggest if he doesn't, we find out why he didn't, and fix it fast.

Paintrain, what age and draft position is the player you speak of?
He was 26 at the time and is a QB. EDIT-And is not Eli Manning.

I don't think 'franchise' quarterbacks throw as few td's as Jason is trending towards continuing to do. He's clearly not a consistent scoring threat for us. That consistency is based on the limited data we've got. If he makes it as a franchise qb, it wont be with the 'skins.Well, we also don't have any touchdown scorers on the offense that would make you think, why are their numbers suffering? Cooley had a 1 TD year last year, so if he doesn't rebound, I might get worried. But Moss was never a big TD guy, neither was ARE. The fact that the big scorer on this team is the RB explains why Campbell probably shouldn't ever be graded by his TD totals.

This is a different point if his INT rate rises to meet his TD rate. At a 1:1 TD/INT rate, Campbell is ineffective. But at 5:2 or 3:1, he's a very effective, borderline pro-bowler. That's what we should look for this year.

The pro bowl voters do tend to get caught up in the big TD numbers, which is why I think if the team can replace those 35+ TD seasons with wins, Campbell will get his dues.

He was 26 at the time and is a QB. EDIT-And is not Eli Manning.Brees?