For all you D Hall lovers

NFL.com Blogs » Blog Archive CB Hayden, Colts strike five-year, $43 million deal « (http://blogs.nfl.com/2009/02/18/cb-hayden-colts-strike-five-year-43-million-deal/)

Hayden, who helped the Colts win Super Bowl XLI three years ago, reached an agreement with the team on a five-year, $43 million contract that includes $22.5 million in guaranteed money.

Looks like the price tag for Hall may be even more than 6 / $ 44M / $ 18M. At these numbers, I think we may be better served going with a more cost effective alternative. Hall is a big risk at $ 18M guaranteed. While I'd like to see Springs released to free up cap space, we're probably better served to hold him, pass on Hall and see if we can find a better value at CB in FA.

I'd be surprised if it gets to $18 million guaranteed. It's kind of ironic I guess that the best corners on the market all have local ties. Bly born in VA, Hall born in VA, Foxworth born in Maryland, Bodden born in DC, and Bartell went to Howard.

I think you have to let these first wave of signing settle down, no one in their right mind is going to sign Hall for top money, simply because of the past experiences, but Hall has to be looking at these numbers and raising his price. once the field levels out, hopefully, he will come to his senses and take a reasonable offer with the Skins, after all he was saying how much he wanted to be here when he first signed.

If we dont pay Hall the money he wants now, we will be left with three choices:

1) Pay Hall significantly more money later on.
2) Let Hall walk and pay someone of lesser talent money comparable to what Hall wants now.
3) Let Hall walk and don't do anything of consequence (sign long-term starter) to replace him.

For those of you who are fans of option 3, consider this. Failing to lock up a high quality starter to a long-term contract means financially:

1) Keeping Springs around for atleast one more year at 8.5M
2) Signing some sort of veteran FA with starting experience to a modest contract - lets go conservative (less than what smoot got) and say 3M/year for atleast 2 years (this year and atleast one other year as a 2010 draft pick adjusts to the NFL game) for a total of 6M
3) Use a High draft pick in 2010 on a "long-term" solution at CB. Dominique Rogers-Cromartie, the 16th overall pick last year signed a 6 year, 16M contract with 9M garaunteed. Assuming a 10% increase in salaries annually, and that we drafted someone a corner in the same slot in 2010 (ballpark figure, i know) and we'd be looking at paying someone about 20M with 11M garaunteed to essentially fill the role vacated by Hall this year.

In the end, letting Hall go means spending 25M in garaunteed money in contracts over the next two years to have a less effective solution at the CB position. In the end, we're left with a young draft pick who may or may not turn out to be a good player, and may or may not end up having personal problems WORSE than the problems that Hall has, by all appearances, put behind him.

The notion that we should not push hard to sign Hall before the start of free agency is incredibly short-sighted. Its the kind of thinking that has consistently handicapped this franchise in recent years. Consider just one example:

Dockery got more money than he ever expected once he hit free agency. He was asking us to pay him well more than we wanted to, but it still was less than what he eventually got. In the end, where would we be now if we had just paid him before he hit FA? Well, we would not have needed to trade a 4th round draft picks to the Jets for Pete Kendall, we would not have had to use an additional 3rd round pick on Rinehart in 2008, and we would not be looking for a guard now. Yes, letting Dock walk cost us (as of now) THREE mid-range draft picks that could have been used to build depth and address other postions. While it would have cost some money to keep him, we wouldnt have had to pay Kendall, Rinehart, or whoever eventually starts at RG for us long-term. When you add up all those contracts and include inflation, it undoubtably would not be that much less than what it would have cost to keep Dock, especially if we replace him by a marquee free agent this year or a high draft pick in the coming years.

The same prinicples apply to other starting caliber free agents we've let walk in recent years like Antionio Pierce and Ryan Clark. Well managed NFL teams know that most of the time, in the long-run, its cheaper to keep your own young, home-grown stars than it is to let them walk. youre almost always going to pay less to keep your own guy (hometown discount) than you are to find a comparable FA replacement elsewhere. Cornerback is one of the premier positions in the NFL. look at how often corners get franchised - its because teams know their value and they want to get a long-term deal signed with the player because they know its cheaper and better for the team in the long run.

If the skins wait and dont push to get something done now, theyre fools. complete fools.

I think you can almost discount the deal the Raiders gave out. It's so off the charts and unconventional I don't think agents are going to have much success trying to use it as a benchmark for other corners.

If we dont pay Hall the money he wants now, we will be left with three choices:

1) Pay Hall significantly more money later on.
2) Let Hall walk and pay someone of lesser talent money comparable to what hall wants now.
3) Let Hall walk and don't do anything of consequence to improve the CB situation. Use a high draft pick on a corner in 2009 or 2010.

Can you explain this? Are you saying that we should let Hall walk and pay someone with lesser talent the money Hall wants? Why on earth would we do this, if we were to do this, why wouldn't we just sign Hall?

Can you explain this? Are you saying that we should let Hall walk and pay someone with lesser talent the money Hall wants? Why on earth would we do this, if we were to do this, why wouldn't we just sign Hall?

ok that is crazy.... you quoted and posted a post i hadnt submitted yet. The post at the top of the page, i just submitted less than 1 minute ago. this is creepy!

I said that because every year, once free agency starts, prices rise and they keep rising. In the end, a lesser talent like Leigh Bodden or Dre Bly is going to cost us just as much to sign as it would have cost to sign Hall a week ago... teams have a ton of cap space and if they need an upgrade at a position, they'll overpay for him. that puts other teams in a panic and then they overpay. the standard of pay is constantly raised (simple supply/demand relationship)

of course, theres always the option to let skip the first crazy couple of weeks in free agency and then go after the scraps that are left over, but you are always left with marginal guys when you do that. youre getting cheap replacements and your team is worse off as a result.

IMO, the smart teams do the following in free agency:

1) Resign their own "top tier" free agents BEFORE free agency starts. You will save a ton of money short-term and long-term doing this. You also take the least amount of risk here becaues youre getting a guy you know works well in your system.
2) For the most part, avoid the first two weeks of free agency entirely. Let your own nominal players test the market (like we did with Rock last year). If they get an offer from another team, consider matching it, but dont break the bank. if you wait, you can get comparable nominal players once everything settles down at a cheaper price.
3) Upgrade your teams depth once everything "settles down" after all the big guys are signed.

We didn't trade a 3rd and 4th for Kendall

I think you can almost discount the deal the Raiders gave out. It's so off the charts and unconventional I don't think agents are going to have much success trying to use it as a benchmark for other corners.

The contract itself is fairly unconventional, but it did raise the bar. I think the contract for Chris Gamble is what most teams will go off of. Haydens contract with Indy is very similar. Thats the benchmark guys like Hall, Bodden, Bly, and others will be looking at. obviously, the guys have varying skill levels, but their agents will be looking at those contracts and trying to get their players contracts along the same lines, with the total value and garaunteed money increasing or decreasing depending on the players perceived value as opposed to that of Gamble and Hayden (long sentence, h ope it makes sense)

I think the FO is handling it reasonably, which is to let the market shake out.
I imagine Hall could sign a contract with multi-million dollars guaranteed right now with us, and this after getting 8million from the Raiders. I think a reasonable argument can be made that if Hall is holding us up for the Max dollars, then chances are he has not learned anything and his time with us was just to get a fat contract.

I think a reasonable argument can be made that if Hall is holding us up for the Max dollars, then chances are he has not learned anything and his time with us was just to get a fat contract.
Stop with this logic and well reasoned thinking, it has no place here. :laughing-