Updated: Discuss our Backup QB Situation (formerly Byron Leftwich)

I do see the big picture, which is why I want to move Campbell now.

You assume Campbell has the potential to become a franchise WCO quarterback. Everyone in the NFL was ridiculing the skins for bringing in Zorn last year because everyone realized that Campbell is a horrible fit for the offense Zorn would want to run. Dragging this thing out with Campbell is going to get us nowhere. We'll have a serviceable QB for a year, maybe two, but then we'll have to let him walk as a free agent and receive no compensation in return. Campbells trade value will never be higher than it is now. he's worth more to us as a 2nd round pick than he is as a 1-2 year starter; especially when we could bring in Leftwich (who couldnt be any worse) and have a 2nd round pick to use on a lineman.No one with any credibility was saying anything about the Zorn hire outside of "well, they ran a solid process, so we'll see if they were right".

Now, if I go out on a limb and pretend you are right: If we find someone willing to deal a 2nd rounder for Campbell, that's a pretty good indication that we missed something in his valuation, right? Matt Schaub was worth two second rounders, and that was a buyers market based mostly on his prospects, not his production.

If we shop Campbell, how are other teams supposed to value him? We don't have a QB on our roster who can handle the position currently, so we would be right back in the free agent market (Where Leftwich is as good a solution as any). If it's a sellers market, and no buyers are willing to throw in more than a second rounder, I'd tell them to get lost.

The undertone to your argument is that Campbell's eventual failure in Zorn's offense is inevitable, but you haven't defended that with anything but hearsay and speculation. Lots of people on this fourm (myself included) do disagree with the premise that you have presented, citing measurable evidence such as improved QB rating and pass efficiency in 2008. While it's theoretically possible that you are right, the "lots of people will disagree with me" angle just isn't all that convincing.

Your proposal is another 2nd round pick in trade for a ton of unnecessary offensive turnover, at the most fundamental positions on the team plus tons of unquantifiable scouting uncertainties that come with the change. Is it worth it? Maybe, but it seems like a lot of accounting work just to prove we might be able to break even.

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P.S. Past work I've done on this fourm and on my blog has estimated (roughly) that the average expectation for a 2nd round pick is somewhere between 2-3 wins (over replacement) over the life of a rookie contract. That's roughly Campbell's 2008 value alone, depending on whose metrics you deal with.

While a rough analysis is certainly not a be all end all, it's a tough, tough mountain to climb to prove that making Byron Leftwich the Skins starting QB right now is the best move for the Washington Redskins.

Yeah, well, that "slow relaese" burned our defense!!

Unless someone wants to watch every QBs eyes every play and then compare how many times Campbell stares down vs others, of course it cant be backed up by evidence... but the fact still remains that Campbell almost always stares down his guy.While I do admire your ability to look at both sides here, you still have to leave this opinion out of the debate because 1) It IS in dispute and 2) it simply can't be proven, or even supported by anything.

You're best off moving forward without this claim, I think.

While I don't agree with everything BHA posts, I do enjoy getting a different perspective on things and I think some of us are selling Colt Brennan short.

While I don't agree with everything BHA posts, I do enjoy getting a different perspective on things and I think some of us are selling Colt Brennan short.I don't think too many people are selling Brennan short. Brennan=Timmy Chang isn't very productive, but what's Brennan's ultimate hope? That he develops into a bona fide NFL Starter, someone like Jason Campbell or Byron Leftwich, and then people don't cast him aside for stupid reasons (like the ones that dropped him in the draft, if the scouts were wrong)?

I think he's more than capable of being our No. 2 guy, but I wouldn't bet a season on his ability to play in the NFL. Too much risk for the potential reward (an extra second round pick in this case).

Off the top of my head, both John Madden and Clinton Portis think Brennan is going to be a baller some day. He is a QB hand-picked by Zorn so Zorn saw something in him.

Madden's just hyping a pre-season game, Clinton Portis has zero credibility in evaluating a QB prospect, Zorn used a 6th round pick on a project QB. Didn't Gibbs take Jordan Palmer with a 5th, where is Palmer now.

As to your Timmy Chang comparison, its insulting.You may want to fully read the wiki on Chang again. The comparison is far from insulting. Both played for U of Hawaii in the June Jones offensive system, which creates Passing Stat monsters. Chang still holds several NCAA passing records (INTs, Offensive yards, Career Passing, and is third in total TDs). Chang was on NFL rosters for two years before being out (probably the same for CB) and picking up with the CFL. Chang is 6' 1", CB is 6' 3", those two inches make a difference if both were strictly pocket passers, but Chang is/was much more mobile than CB.

Also it doesn't matter where someone is slated to go in a mock draft, it's where they actually go that matters. Talking heads do mock drafts, guys on the Internet do mock drafts, NFL personnel folks actually draft. 31 other teams didn't see fit to take Brennan ahead of where he went. So 31 other sets of NFL personnel folks didn't see too much in him either. The WCO is not a fit for a QB with a poor release, below-average to weak NFL arm, that appears to makes some poor decisions on the NFL level.

He may not be the long-term answer for us at QB, but then again, he may be. Campbell has already proved that he isnt.So Campbell improving yearly and increasing his performance from '07 to '08 with an inferior OL "proves" he isn't the guy for our system. The jury may still be out but the indicators appear to be that JC will be a solid, but not superstar, NFL QB.

They are general statements yes, but no one who watched him play can disagree with these statements unless they want to argue just for the sake of arguing. I disagree with your statements because IMO they're wrong and you have no evidence or stats to show you're right. My stats (improved QB rating, only 6 INTs, 62% completions) favor my position over yours. I watched JC play and I have a completely different impression than you. You are taking the typical fan route, something's wrong, blame the QB. Maybe the protection broke down, maybe the sub 5'10" receivers weren't open, maybe JC's been coached to not make an overly aggressive play resulting in a turn-over. If you believe Jim Zorn is such a great QB evaluator that he "saw something" in CB, doesn't it make sense that if JC was "locking on" to receivers and was a "slow decision maker" that Zorn would've mentioned this (he is pretty forthcoming) or he would've went to Collins, or the Skins would be actively shopping JC for picks?

I don't remember seeing too many on this site making the comments about "slow decision making" & "locking on" when the Skins were 6-2.

Campbell never had time to develop in that system - but he was a much better fit for it.In the Coryell / Gibbs type system you must be an accurate downfield passer, from what we have seen out of JC, that isn't his strong-suit.

no way he comes here. Campbell is going to be the starter for at least the 2009-10 season. Leftwich could end up starting for Detroit

I don't think too many people are selling Brennan short. Brennan=Timmy Chang isn't very productive, but what's Brennan's ultimate hope? That he develops into a bona fide NFL Starter, someone like Jason Campbell or Byron Leftwich, and then people don't cast him aside for stupid reasons (like the ones that dropped him in the draft, if the scouts were wrong)?

I think he's more than capable of being our No. 2 guy, but I wouldn't bet a season on his ability to play in the NFL. Too much risk for the potential reward (an extra second round pick in this case).

I would never say start Brennan NEXT season. But given a couple of years, it is possible he could turn out to be a very good QB. I don't know how anyone could say with any certainty he won't.

No one with any credibility was saying anything about the Zorn hire outside of "well, they ran a solid process, so we'll see if they were right".

Do you read JLC's blog? He quoted multiple leage executives (unnamed, of course) who criticized Zorns hire - both because no one else thought Zorn could be an OC, let alone HC, but also because of Campbells was essentially the opposite of what you look for in a WCO QB.

Now, if I go out on a limb and pretend you are right: If we find someone willing to deal a 2nd rounder for Campbell, that's a pretty good indication that we missed something in his valuation, right? Matt Schaub was worth two second rounders, and that was a buyers market based mostly on his prospects, not his production.

If we shop Campbell, how are other teams supposed to value him? We don't have a QB on our roster who can handle the position currently, so we would be right back in the free agent market (Where Leftwich is as good a solution as any). If it's a sellers market, and no buyers are willing to throw in more than a second rounder, I'd tell them to get lost.

I actually think we could get more than a 2nd rounder, but in the end, i would take a 2nd if thats all i could get. If another team refused to offer atleast a 2nd rounder, i'd also tell them to get lost.

The undertone to your argument is that Campbell's eventual failure in Zorn's offense is inevitable, but you haven't defended that with anything but hearsay and speculation. Lots of people on this fourm (myself included) do disagree with the premise that you have presented, citing measurable evidence such as improved QB rating and pass efficiency in 2008. While it's theoretically possible that you are right, the "lots of people will disagree with me" angle just isn't all that convincing.

I dont know how either of us can accurately predict whether Campbell will ultimately succeed in the WCO or not and back up our prediction with cold-hard facts. No one can predict the future. It all depends on what "hearsay and speculation" we chose to accept and base our belief on. Like you, i'm willing to say its possible i'm completely wrong about this: Theres a chance Campbell will surprise me here. But when i think about it, theres a FAR greater chance Campbell will fail than that he will succeed. He's too tall, too slow, too indecisive, and too innaccurate on his short throws. (i'll give up the stare down argument because i know it theres no way to prove his percentage of stare-downs vs other QBs). He was drafted by Joe Gibbs to run the EXACT opposite style of offense that we are running now. The WCO doesnt take advantage of his strengths (primarily his preference to longer step drops, big arm, and pretty accurate deep ball), while exaggerating all his weaknesses (i wont bore you by reiterating them). Campbell has improved in some areas - yes (most noteably not fumbling); but his underlying flaws remain.

At some point you have to cut your losses and move on. Im ready to do that now. The bears, Vikings, and Titans are perfect fits for Campbell and they all need franchise QBs. It seems the time is right for us to move him, in my opinion.



Your proposal is another 2nd round pick in trade for a ton of unnecessary offensive turnover, at the most fundamental positions on the team plus tons of unquantifiable scouting uncertainties that come with the change. Is it worth it? Maybe, but it seems like a lot of accounting work just to prove we might be able to break even.

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P.S. Past work I've done on this fourm and on my blog has estimated (roughly) that the average expectation for a 2nd round pick is somewhere between 2-3 wins (over replacement) over the life of a rookie contract. That's roughly Campbell's 2008 value alone, depending on whose metrics you deal with.

While a rough analysis is certainly not a be all end all, it's a tough, tough mountain to climb to prove that making Byron Leftwich the Skins starting QB right now is the best move for the Washington Redskins.[/QUOTE]

If we could get more for campbell, i would be happy. As i stated earlier, I dont think leftwich is the best move for the skins, but I think hes a better move for us than sticking with campbell. In the end, I dont think leftwich would be any worse, and trading Campbell could yield us much needed draft picks, which we could use to address our lines. The more picks we have, the more line positions we can address, the sooner we can get this franchise back on track.

I'm fine with rebuilding. If we lose all but two games (Dallas) next year and get a high draft pick then I could stomach the pain.

Gotta love it....how bout them Cowgirls!!!