If Nothing Changes Come Draft Day, Who Would You Draft

I think E.Brown is the real deal, smart guy & great athlete. I can't say the same about Johnson's smarts (don't know), but he's got the athletic upside. There's no way at this point that Johnson is off the board before Brown. There is a lot of negative scouting on MJ. If he's there in the 2nd & we have a pick it might be worth the risk. If he falls all the way to the 3rd, which I believe could happen, I think we'd have to take him.

I know there are negative reports out there on MJ, I just don't see it from that tape (but I haven't watch full games). It kind of seems to me that the lack of production from him comes from a lack of talent around him (say, to collapse the pocket). I don't care what Kiper or Mayock say, I just don't see him dropping out of the 1st. He isn't Calais Campbell, he has way more physical tools. Someone will want to work with him and I wouldn't mind it being the Skins. He apparently ran a 4.61 at his Pro Day - as opposed to the 5.whatever that Campbell turned in last year) and when I look at the tape I see I guy with the size/explosiveness/power combination that NFL teams covet. I know you weren't comparing him to Campbell, I'm just comparing him to a guy at his position from last year that dropped and the classic components of a draft plummet are not there with Johnson. I'll be shocked if he falls out of the first and would bet big money that he doesn't make it to pick 40. Unless he is nailed for a DUI before draft day there is zero chance he makes it to the 3rd IMHO.

I do agree with you on Brown. He looks like the real deal. A Dwight Freeny type speed rusher (though I guess most are projecting him as a 3-4 OLB). I'd love to have him, I just would question his ability to fit with Blache's defense and the emphasis on run stopping. Johnson, on the other hand, has the perfect body type to do that.

The only film I could find on YouTube was a video that some guy had taken from his TV of about three plays that Matthews made this year. From those three plays he looked better than Cushing but, you know, rather limited sample size. I think I'd probably take Rey ahead of him.

Yeah, I haven't seen a lot of videos of Clay Matthews - but I do know that he's not 1st round talent. I would possibly consider him in the 3rd round maybe - if there wasn't anyone there better in any other spots of need/impact. Seeing a little bit of the video with Matthews - he seems more of a situational type player in a given role. He works best at pass/run blitzing - which to me, is good but something that you would want as a bonus from a linebacker instead of being his standalone strength. But yeah, definitely not a 1st rounder IMO.

You know who definitely is going to be the steal of the draft is Percy Harvin. This guy is very underrated because he doesn't fit the defined positions of wr or rb very well - but he has football skills that are extraordinary. He would be a very good addition to an already solid offense. If you are a Reggie Bush fan, I think you might like Harvin - but Harvin is good and athletic in a different way (I may need to think about it and have to explain the difference later). But they are both very fluid offensive players with the ball in their hands and deceptively explosive. These two guys are just football players.

I know there are negative reports out there on MJ, I just don't see it from that tape (but I haven't watch full games). It kind of seems to me that the lack of production from him comes from a lack of talent around him (say, to collapse the pocket). I don't care what Kiper or Mayock say, I just don't see him dropping out of the 1st. He isn't Calais Campbell, he has way more physical tools. Someone will want to work with him and I wouldn't mind it being the Skins. He apparently ran a 4.61 at his Pro Day - as opposed to the 5.whatever that Campbell turned in last year) and when I look at the tape I see I guy with the size/explosiveness/power combination that NFL teams covet. I know you weren't comparing him to Campbell, I'm just comparing him to a guy at his position from last year that dropped and the classic components of a draft plummet are not there with Johnson. I'll be shocked if he falls out of the first and would bet big money that he doesn't make it to pick 40. Unless he is nailed for a DUI before draft day there is zero chance he makes it to the 3rd IMHO.

I do agree with you on Brown. He looks like the real deal. A Dwight Freeny type speed rusher (though I guess most are projecting him as a 3-4 OLB). I'd love to have him, I just would question his ability to fit with Blache's defense and the emphasis on run stopping. Johnson, on the other hand, has the perfect body type to do that.

If I were to take a DE at 13 (but I wouldn't right now with what I've seen in this draft class), I would take Orakpo instead of Johnson. Orakpo may seem a little undersized at the position, but to me on video, it looks like Orakpo is stronger than Johnson rushing against o-linemen.

BTW, Orakpo is Nigerian for Warrior (got it from a featured TV segment) - and if orakpo becomes all-pro for the redskins, I will officially change my user name to orakpozpath.

If I were to take a DE at 13 (but I wouldn't right now with what I've seen in this draft class), I would take Orakpo instead of Johnson. Orakpo may seem a little undersized at the position, but to me on video, it looks like Orakpo is stronger than Johnson rushing against o-linemen.

BTW, Orakpo is Nigerian for Warrior (got it from a featured TV segment) - and if orakpo becomes all-pro for the redskins, I will officially change my user name to orakpozpath.

Sure, you'd take Orakpo over Johnson, but the chances are Orakpo goes in the top 10 and the Skins won't have a shot at him. And actually, if Orakpo were to slip to 13, I'd use it as leverage to move back on favorable terms.

Yeah, I haven't seen a lot of videos of Clay Matthews - but I do know that he's not 1st round talent. I would possibly consider him in the 3rd round maybe - if there wasn't anyone there better in any other spots of need/impact. Seeing a little bit of the video with Matthews - he seems more of a situational type player in a given role. He works best at pass/run blitzing - which to me, is good but something that you would want as a bonus from a linebacker instead of being his standalone strength. But yeah, definitely not a 1st rounder IMO.

You know who definitely is going to be the steal of the draft is Percy Harvin. This guy is very underrated because he doesn't fit the defined positions of wr or rb very well - but he has football skills that are extraordinary. He would be a very good addition to an already solid offense. If you are a Reggie Bush fan, I think you might like Harvin - but Harvin is good and athletic in a different way (I may need to think about it and have to explain the difference later). But they are both very fluid offensive players with the ball in their hands and deceptively explosive. These two guys are just football players.

How do you figure he's not a 1st rounder if you haven't really seen him play?

In his latest mock Pat Kirwan has the Skins taking Aaron Maybin to play the SAM. That is kind of an interesting name. I can't find any good game highlights on him, but watching his combine performance he looks like a fluid athlete. He played DE in college and has pass rush skills so he could help get after the QB either from the SAM or even by putting his hand on the ground as a situational pass rusher. If they did decide to go defense that could be someone to watch. I really am down on Cushing and think Brown and Orakpo will probably be gone. It is also possible that the top four tackles all go in the top 10.

How do you figure he's not a 1st rounder if you haven't really seen him play?

Good question. It's hard to evaluate Matthews because there's very little video available (at least to the avg fan). I'd have to go w/ Kiper et al and say Matthews is late 1st round talent. Honestly, i'd rather get Matthews late 1st than Cushing @ 13. But then in the latter half of the 1st there's guys like English, Laurinitus etc. Tough call.

In his latest mock Pat Kirwan has the Skins taking Aaron Maybin to play the SAM. That is kind of an interesting name. I can't find any good game highlights on him, but watching his combine performance he looks like a fluid athlete. He played DE in college and has pass rush skills so he could help get after the QB either from the SAM or even by putting his hand on the ground as a situational pass rusher. If they did decide to go defense that could be someone to watch. I really am down on Cushing and think Brown and Orakpo will probably be gone. It is also possible that the top four tackles all go in the top 10.Maybin scares the living shit out of me because his statistical profile is basically equal to Devin Thomas: a poor first season, then a record-setting second season followed by darting to the NFL before regression to the mean can occur.

One thing that baseball and football scouts and statisticians all agree on is that a truly elite talent is a truly elite talent regardless of circumstantial evidence that suggests he'll fail. And there's no doubt Maybin is a perfect fit in our system as a 4-3 linebacker.

I had this (http://mvn.com/outsider/2009/03/nfl-top-10-outside-linebackers.html) to say about him last weekend:

9. Aaron Maybin, Penn State
Maybin is an explosive player on film, but he's a player with a single pass rushing move, doesn't have the size to hold up as a down end in the NFL, and wasn't particularly impressive at all in Indy. On top of all of that, Maybin carries the dreaded one-year wonder tag as well, having posted more than 80% of his college production as a college sophomore, and then bolting for the NFL draft before he could develop that second move that pass rushers in the NFL require. Maybin is not a good prospect as either a 3-4 outside linebacker or a 4-3 end, but I actually like his skill set as an outside linebacker in the 4-3. Either way, you are taking a massive project, so Maybin is second day material.Understandably, I wouldn't touch Maybin in the first round. There's not strong evidence that he's an NFL prospect. But if film truly doesn't lie, he could be just the player we are looking for.

The posterchild for high risk/high reward.

Maybin scares the living shit out of me because his statistical profile is basically equal to Devin Thomas: a poor first season, then a record-setting second season followed by darting to the NFL before regression to the mean can occur.

One thing that baseball and football scouts and statisticians all agree on is that a truly elite talent is a truly elite talent regardless of circumstantial evidence that suggests he'll fail. And there's no doubt Maybin is a perfect fit in our system as a 4-3 linebacker.

I had this (http://mvn.com/outsider/2009/03/nfl-top-10-outside-linebackers.html) to say about him last weekend:

Understandably, I wouldn't touch Maybin in the first round. There's not strong evidence that he's an NFL prospect. But if film truly doesn't lie, he could be just the player we are looking for.

The posterchild for high risk/high reward.

Thanks for info, I really know nothing about Maybin.

Maybin seems to make more sense than Cushing at No. 13 though. If we swing at Maybin we might miss really, really hard, at it would be costly no doubt. But it would make more sense than watching Cushing struggle through injuries and McIntosh-type production for the better part of the next five years while our defense gradually declines.

The gradual decline of a defense built like ours is inevitable anyway. I'm just really hoping that we can get some pass rushers so we can take advantage of having Haynesworth's best years here in our defense. He's not going to get any better than he is right now, so his biggest impact to our defense is going to come this year. If we're not a top five defense this year, we're in lots of trouble (thanks, DHall contract!).