GTripp0012
12-29-2008, 08:39 PM
The good news about the Redskins offense at this point is that all the problems are clearly and obviously defined: Jason Campbell needs more help. I mean, he was the offense for most of the second half of the year. Recently, it's been even more literal than that: he can't even put the ball in the air anymore. He's got to do it with his own feet.
Campbell is one of the best quarterbacks in the league in terms of carrying the football, only Matt Cassel was a more effective runner this year according to Football Outsiders (http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb).
Unfortunately, Campbell's running is the only part of the offense that got better from the first half of the year to the second half. Campbell, the passer, held up his end of the bargain a well, only turning the ball over 6 times all year via interception, lowest rate in the NFL, and saving the team plenty of sacks while protecting the football well. Campbell still has room to grow in terms of avoiding sacks by throwing the ball away, but his pocket presence is as good as any in the league.
Jason Campbell will continue to improve in the Jim Zorn offense next year, but the Redskins will only reap any benefits from this if they put a real offense around him. The Redskins passing offense declined slightly in it's value to winning football games from last season, despite Campbell's personal improvements. The offensive line declined from last year, albeit not quite as much as it seemed at times. Surely, Campbell's development is probably a big reason they only declined a little bit as opposed to a lot, but most of the problems that phased the Redskins this year (Casey Rabach) were simply under-publicized problems last year. Randy Thomas missed most of last year with an injury, and the team extended his contract in the off-season, only to find that he didn't really improve the team over his replacement from last year, Jason Fabini. Jon Jansen vs. Stephon Heyer is a nice debate at all, but both are slightly below average pass protecting tackles with conflicting favored styles in run blocking. Really, the difference between last years line and this year's line was just healthy Chris Samuels vs. injured Chris Samuels.
Without Samuels, the Redskins watched Clinton Portis decend to last year's levels of production. Portis was averaging 4.8 yards per carry through 11 games. In the final five games, Portis was good for 2.9 yards per carry. Same runner, less effective line, brutal results. Look no further as to why the Redskins could not dominate any game offensively following the Seattle game, the last time the Redskins were really able to control the ball for four quarters.
In the final eight games, Jason Campbell watched as the production of his receivers declined. Campbell was doing nothing different between the first eight games and final eight games, but his complementary receiver Antwaan Randle El (who was having a great year through 11 games [9.7 YPT before, 4.0 YPT after]) fell off the face of the earth, his explosive number one receiver, Santana Moss, stopped producing any sort of big play, despite more than enough chances. Anytime Campbell or Zorn wanted to stretch the field, shoddy blocking on the line or poor routes by the receivers killed the Redskins. One-third of Campbell's INTs this year were the direct result of an offense not built for vertical play trying to go vertical.
The fact that neither Malcolm Kelly or Devin Thomas picked up for Randle El's decline is disturbing. Devin Thomas was given countless chances to produce, but could not do anything to help the Redskins win. He made a few key first down catches. Malcolm Kelly has a more optimistic projection for 2009, but his 2008 season was a total waste of a year, so expect a lot of rookie mistakes from a guy that Washington will lean heavily on next year.
So what about the San Francisco game? Uh, well, Justin Smith is really good. And our problems are the same problems we have had all year. Unable to overcome injuries on the OL, and despite every WR being able to play in every game this year, no one was able to provide any assistance in the role of a Keenan McCardell or Reche Caldwell. Let's face it, if the front office was prepared to deal with inept rookie receivers, James Thrash wouldn't have seen 20 targets this season. We couldn't run the ball very well at all, per usual.
Fred Davis appears to be a keeper. The guy has really done a good job blocking in the month of December, and since he has passed Todd Yoder on the depth chart, the 2 TE formation has become our most effective formation. It's amazing what a team can accomplish when all five skill players are competent. The Redskins have enjoyed plenty of success off of play action in the month of December, and credit Davis' emergence for that improvement, even if he hasn't made a significant dent in the stat sheet yet.
Pass Offense
Vital Statistics
Total adj yards = 194
Yards per play = 5.24
Success rate = 48.6% (18/37)
Receivers
(Targets, Receptions, SR, YPA)
Santana Moss - 10, 6, 50%, 6.9
Chris Cooley - 7, 6, 57%, 7.1
Antwaan Randle El - 6, 3, 33%, 2.7
Ladell Betts - 3, 2, 0%, 2.3
James Thrash - 1, 1, 100%, 7.0
Moss, in particular, is the frustrating one. I still think he can be the number one receiver in a power oriented offense, because long developing routes off of play action favor what Moss is good at, getting separation and making plays after the catch. But if Santana Moss is going to get targeted 10 times in any game next year, and he only catches 5 balls with no catches over 20 yards, I don't see us getting significantly better on offense. 6.9 YPA is average for a wideout, which describes Moss as an every down WR: adequate.
Randle El's disappearance is more troubling. He got targeted six times, only caught three balls, with no catches over six yards. His touchdown was obviously his best play. Look, early season Randle El is an ideal No. 2 receiver, 9.0 YPA type guy, catches 75% of whats thrown his way. December Randle El is useless, a No. 4 type at best. Understand the difference, and hope that he plays more like his old self in 2009 than his most recent self. He can be more valuable than Moss, but he can't play like this and stay on the field.
Cooley is Cooley. Truer words have not been spoken in this column.
Rush Offense
Vital Statistics
Total adj yds = 84
Yards per play = 2.8
Success rate = 33.3% (10/30)
The Redskins lost their individual battles at the LOS too often. Pete Kendall really had a lot of trouble with Justin Smith all day, and if he can't match up with Smith, no one on our OL can. Heyer was actually pretty good today, again, when he wasn't lined up against Smith. Jansen allowed a heck of a lot of penetration. Same with Rabach. Randy Thomas was better than normal. Sellers was a mixed bag, and same with Cooley. Fred Davis was consistently good, but the receiver blocking was the worst I can remember it in a long time.
Rushing
(Runs, Successful Runs, YPC ave.)
Clinton Portis - 29, 10, 2.8
Ladell Betts - 1, 0, 6.0
I guess the nicest thing you can say about the job Betts and Portis did is that they both sold play action well, and Betts had a really beautiful blitz pickup where he upended the guy.
Overall Offense
Vital Statistics
Total Adj Yds = 276
Yards per play = 4.12
Success rate = 41.8% (28/67)
The thing is that our passing game has been remarkably consistent all year except for one little thing: we lost our vertical component when our offensive line got banged up and declined. Once again, the passing game held up its end of the bargain in this one. We didn't score three TDs on long scoring drives because we were any better on offense than in prior weeks, we scored three TDs because all of our unsuccessful series were lumped together as three and outs. Our successful drives pretty much all (except one) ended in the end zone. This is why I study per play metrics. So I can tell you that you look at our one TD performance against Cincinnati, and our three TD performance against San Francisco, and that the only difference is the timing of our successful plays/drives and Sellers not fumbling on the one. That's it. That's the difference between 13 points and 24 points.
I said that the points were not indicative of how we played then, and its the same deal here. Just on the other side of the coin. The 49ers were just better than us.
I hope you all have enjoyed my reviews this year, and any suggestions on what parts I should keep in here should I opt to do truncated versions next year would be greatly appreciated. Thank you, and Hail!
Campbell is one of the best quarterbacks in the league in terms of carrying the football, only Matt Cassel was a more effective runner this year according to Football Outsiders (http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb).
Unfortunately, Campbell's running is the only part of the offense that got better from the first half of the year to the second half. Campbell, the passer, held up his end of the bargain a well, only turning the ball over 6 times all year via interception, lowest rate in the NFL, and saving the team plenty of sacks while protecting the football well. Campbell still has room to grow in terms of avoiding sacks by throwing the ball away, but his pocket presence is as good as any in the league.
Jason Campbell will continue to improve in the Jim Zorn offense next year, but the Redskins will only reap any benefits from this if they put a real offense around him. The Redskins passing offense declined slightly in it's value to winning football games from last season, despite Campbell's personal improvements. The offensive line declined from last year, albeit not quite as much as it seemed at times. Surely, Campbell's development is probably a big reason they only declined a little bit as opposed to a lot, but most of the problems that phased the Redskins this year (Casey Rabach) were simply under-publicized problems last year. Randy Thomas missed most of last year with an injury, and the team extended his contract in the off-season, only to find that he didn't really improve the team over his replacement from last year, Jason Fabini. Jon Jansen vs. Stephon Heyer is a nice debate at all, but both are slightly below average pass protecting tackles with conflicting favored styles in run blocking. Really, the difference between last years line and this year's line was just healthy Chris Samuels vs. injured Chris Samuels.
Without Samuels, the Redskins watched Clinton Portis decend to last year's levels of production. Portis was averaging 4.8 yards per carry through 11 games. In the final five games, Portis was good for 2.9 yards per carry. Same runner, less effective line, brutal results. Look no further as to why the Redskins could not dominate any game offensively following the Seattle game, the last time the Redskins were really able to control the ball for four quarters.
In the final eight games, Jason Campbell watched as the production of his receivers declined. Campbell was doing nothing different between the first eight games and final eight games, but his complementary receiver Antwaan Randle El (who was having a great year through 11 games [9.7 YPT before, 4.0 YPT after]) fell off the face of the earth, his explosive number one receiver, Santana Moss, stopped producing any sort of big play, despite more than enough chances. Anytime Campbell or Zorn wanted to stretch the field, shoddy blocking on the line or poor routes by the receivers killed the Redskins. One-third of Campbell's INTs this year were the direct result of an offense not built for vertical play trying to go vertical.
The fact that neither Malcolm Kelly or Devin Thomas picked up for Randle El's decline is disturbing. Devin Thomas was given countless chances to produce, but could not do anything to help the Redskins win. He made a few key first down catches. Malcolm Kelly has a more optimistic projection for 2009, but his 2008 season was a total waste of a year, so expect a lot of rookie mistakes from a guy that Washington will lean heavily on next year.
So what about the San Francisco game? Uh, well, Justin Smith is really good. And our problems are the same problems we have had all year. Unable to overcome injuries on the OL, and despite every WR being able to play in every game this year, no one was able to provide any assistance in the role of a Keenan McCardell or Reche Caldwell. Let's face it, if the front office was prepared to deal with inept rookie receivers, James Thrash wouldn't have seen 20 targets this season. We couldn't run the ball very well at all, per usual.
Fred Davis appears to be a keeper. The guy has really done a good job blocking in the month of December, and since he has passed Todd Yoder on the depth chart, the 2 TE formation has become our most effective formation. It's amazing what a team can accomplish when all five skill players are competent. The Redskins have enjoyed plenty of success off of play action in the month of December, and credit Davis' emergence for that improvement, even if he hasn't made a significant dent in the stat sheet yet.
Pass Offense
Vital Statistics
Total adj yards = 194
Yards per play = 5.24
Success rate = 48.6% (18/37)
Receivers
(Targets, Receptions, SR, YPA)
Santana Moss - 10, 6, 50%, 6.9
Chris Cooley - 7, 6, 57%, 7.1
Antwaan Randle El - 6, 3, 33%, 2.7
Ladell Betts - 3, 2, 0%, 2.3
James Thrash - 1, 1, 100%, 7.0
Moss, in particular, is the frustrating one. I still think he can be the number one receiver in a power oriented offense, because long developing routes off of play action favor what Moss is good at, getting separation and making plays after the catch. But if Santana Moss is going to get targeted 10 times in any game next year, and he only catches 5 balls with no catches over 20 yards, I don't see us getting significantly better on offense. 6.9 YPA is average for a wideout, which describes Moss as an every down WR: adequate.
Randle El's disappearance is more troubling. He got targeted six times, only caught three balls, with no catches over six yards. His touchdown was obviously his best play. Look, early season Randle El is an ideal No. 2 receiver, 9.0 YPA type guy, catches 75% of whats thrown his way. December Randle El is useless, a No. 4 type at best. Understand the difference, and hope that he plays more like his old self in 2009 than his most recent self. He can be more valuable than Moss, but he can't play like this and stay on the field.
Cooley is Cooley. Truer words have not been spoken in this column.
Rush Offense
Vital Statistics
Total adj yds = 84
Yards per play = 2.8
Success rate = 33.3% (10/30)
The Redskins lost their individual battles at the LOS too often. Pete Kendall really had a lot of trouble with Justin Smith all day, and if he can't match up with Smith, no one on our OL can. Heyer was actually pretty good today, again, when he wasn't lined up against Smith. Jansen allowed a heck of a lot of penetration. Same with Rabach. Randy Thomas was better than normal. Sellers was a mixed bag, and same with Cooley. Fred Davis was consistently good, but the receiver blocking was the worst I can remember it in a long time.
Rushing
(Runs, Successful Runs, YPC ave.)
Clinton Portis - 29, 10, 2.8
Ladell Betts - 1, 0, 6.0
I guess the nicest thing you can say about the job Betts and Portis did is that they both sold play action well, and Betts had a really beautiful blitz pickup where he upended the guy.
Overall Offense
Vital Statistics
Total Adj Yds = 276
Yards per play = 4.12
Success rate = 41.8% (28/67)
The thing is that our passing game has been remarkably consistent all year except for one little thing: we lost our vertical component when our offensive line got banged up and declined. Once again, the passing game held up its end of the bargain in this one. We didn't score three TDs on long scoring drives because we were any better on offense than in prior weeks, we scored three TDs because all of our unsuccessful series were lumped together as three and outs. Our successful drives pretty much all (except one) ended in the end zone. This is why I study per play metrics. So I can tell you that you look at our one TD performance against Cincinnati, and our three TD performance against San Francisco, and that the only difference is the timing of our successful plays/drives and Sellers not fumbling on the one. That's it. That's the difference between 13 points and 24 points.
I said that the points were not indicative of how we played then, and its the same deal here. Just on the other side of the coin. The 49ers were just better than us.
I hope you all have enjoyed my reviews this year, and any suggestions on what parts I should keep in here should I opt to do truncated versions next year would be greatly appreciated. Thank you, and Hail!