Election predictions thread

Obama advances to 8-point lead among “traditional likely voters” (http://www.gallup.com/poll/111679/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Lead-Widens-Some-All-Bases.aspx)

The political landscape could be improving for Barack Obama in the waning days of the campaign. Gallup Poll Daily tracking (http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx) from Oct. 28-30 shows him with an eight percentage point lead over John McCain among traditional likely voters (http://www.gallup.com/poll/111124/Gallup-Daily-Likely-Voters-Traditional.aspx) -- 51% to 43% -- his largest margin to date using this historical Gallup Poll voter model.

Obama's current 11-point lead over McCain among all registered voters -- 52% to 41% -- is up from an eight-point lead in yesterday's report, and ties his highest advantage on this basis, last recorded 10 days ago. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here (http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Gallup-Daily-Election-2008.aspx).)

The danger for Obama is that many of his supporters see these polls and think "It's in the bag, I'll just stay home and watch that SNL skit online again" and meanwhile, McCain supporters are actually getting out there and voting.

The danger for Obama is that many of his supporters see these polls and think "It's in the bag, I'll just stay home and watch that SNL skit online again" and meanwhile, McCain supporters are actually getting out there and voting.

Perhaps, but I don't think that will happen.

I think there's almost a sense of urgency out there among voters, turnouts are going to be big.

Perhaps, but I don't think that will happen.

I think there's almost a sense of urgency out there among voters, turnouts are going to be big.

8 hour lines in Georgia today. Three hours here in NC.

8 hour lines in Georgia today. Three hours here in NC.

I have to vote in Columbia Maryland and have to drive from Frederick Maryland after class... My class gets out at 3:15.. Given traffic and such I believe I'll be in Columbia by about 4:30-5 at the latest. If I'm in line before polls close, I still get to vote... Right? They're not gonna be like, "Oops, it's 8, get out of line, bitches."

I have to vote in Columbia Maryland and have to drive from Frederick Maryland after class... My class gets out at 3:15.. Given traffic and such I believe I'll be in Columbia by about 4:30-5 at the latest. If I'm in line before polls close, I still get to vote... Right? They're not gonna be like, "Oops, it's 8, get out of line, bitches."

As long as you're in line you'll get to vote. Period.

8 hour lines in Georgia today. Three hours here in NC.

good to hear

McCain will win by at least 5-6% and by over 100 EC votes.

The fact that Obama is not up by at LEAST 10 points in the polls is bad, bad news to his campaign since polls are always weighted in Democrats' favors. Remember how Kerry was up last time and lost? Gore? Even McGovern had a lead over Reagan a month out. :rofl:

The lead has been rapidly shrinking for Obama this week as the pollsters adjust to try to salvage credibility.

Choosing Prosperity and Strength: The Polls Move Towards McCain (http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/blog/g/ff2dbb51-f269-4ff2-a82d-e4f6120ef228)
Townhall.com::Blog (http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/blog/g/ff2dbb51-f269-4ff2-a82d-e4f6120ef228)

In my state, PA, a few days ago, Obama was up by 10-12 points.

now:



Also, early voting SHOCKINGLY has been in favor of McCain and independent "undecided" voters are almost all doing to McCain.

sorry I just have to...

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

:)

I thopught this was interesting ... the guy is in baseball stats so I thought it was fitting, hes got 344 to 193
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_5ieXw28ZUpg/SQks0JhKnYI/AAAAAAAAAgM/JkcyS93Myfk/S1600-R/1029_scenario.png
FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/)

That wasn't too far off

sorry I just have to...

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

:)

That's cold...a Redskins loss and an Obama win has got to hurt.

Buster, I feel for you man, be strong.