Clinton Portis' Workload

It's ridiculous to worry about 2008 when we're in the postseason now. I say ride Portis as far as he can take us in the playoffs. When you're one of a handful of teams with a shot to make a Super Bowl run, you don't worry about next season.

Soup, you've had quite a few posts the past few days. I think we might have to sit you down for a spell so you're ready to post at full strength for the 2008 preseason ;)

Soup, you've had quite a few posts the past few days. I think we might have to sit you down for a spell so you're ready to post at full strength for the 2008 preseason ;)Touché!!!

Not sure what you are getting at. Obviously, Collins, Clinton, Santana, n' Cooley have got us in the playoffs. He's finally getting healthy after all the issues he had in the offseason/preseason. I have to agree with others that he'll lobby for 30 touches a game, Joe will get him 30 touches a game, and that helps us against Seattle. To win, we'll need Collins and Portis to play well, but I'm not worried about next year, just the 2nd season and hopefully a W over the birds.

Clinton Portis has 325 carries through 16 games, thats the most in the NFL.

Portis has been very inconsistent this season. Most of the year, he struggled to find running lanes, averaging under 4 yards a carry. Recently, however, Portis has been playing great, as he does every December.

There is little doubt that putting the ball in the hands of a healthy Portis gives us our best chance to win in the playoffs on a weekly basis.

However, if we play more than one playoff game, it appears that Portis will carry the ball in excess of 300 times. No back not named Eric Dickerson has ever carried the ball more than 370 times and bounced back to have another good season the following season. The last time Portis broke the 340 threshold, he couldn't even make it through the first preseason drive without getting injured.

Think about Shaun Alexander's '06, and Larry Johnson's 07.

The question is, should we ride Clinton Portis in the playoffs, knowing full well that if we do, chances are that he will have an injury-riddled '08 campaign? Is it worth it?

Obviously if we went to the super bowl, it would be worth it. But what if we beat the Seahawks and lose to the Cowboys, and Portis carries 50 times between the two games. Have we made a mistake?

Can we possibly hope to win on the arm of our quarterback as opposed to the legs of our running back?

That is rediculous. That is just like saying "No NFC 6th Seed has ever won the superbowl so let's give up." Of course we use him to carry the load, if he is getting the job done. In case you have forgot, He's Clinton "Choo Choo" Portis.

G Tripp, WTF man. You're the superhero of intelligent analysis on this site, you must have eaten some Kryptonite Flakes for breakfast.

Do we really think Portis is any more likely to get hurt in 2008 by playing him in the playoffs instead of shutting him down? There's nothing we can do about it. If he gets hurt, he gets hurt. That's why we signed Betts.

Retarded thread.

325 touches isn't a lot. Just because it's a down year for most backs doesn't mean that CP is getting overused. Just look at past years:

2006 (http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats;jsessionid=15868ADD0F620F3356F1902D7 59FED0A?archive=true&seasonType=REG&d-447263-o=2&conference=null&statisticCategory=RUSHING&d-447263-s=RUSHING_ATTEMPTS&experience=null&d-447263-n=1&season=2006&qualified=true&Submit=Find&tabSeq=0&d-447263-p=1) - 325 was the 8th most touches.
2005 (http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats;jsessionid=9E1FF1301EFB9E427B623596B 9220161?archive=true&seasonType=REG&d-447263-o=2&conference=null&statisticCategory=RUSHING&d-447263-s=RUSHING_ATTEMPTS&experience=null&d-447263-n=1&season=2005&qualified=true&Submit=Find&tabSeq=0&d-447263-p=1) - tied for 8th most touches
2004 (http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats;jsessionid=9BCF790B26C0658A74D2D6FA7 B8F9148?archive=true&seasonType=REG&d-447263-o=2&conference=null&statisticCategory=RUSHING&d-447263-s=RUSHING_ATTEMPTS&experience=null&d-447263-n=1&season=2004&qualified=true&Submit=Find&tabSeq=0&d-447263-p=1) - 8th most touches
2003 (http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats;jsessionid=41E8A95DC830CA51E98465598 9D7093E?archive=true&seasonType=REG&d-447263-o=2&conference=null&statisticCategory=RUSHING&d-447263-s=RUSHING_ATTEMPTS&experience=null&d-447263-n=1&season=2003&qualified=true&Submit=Find&tabSeq=0&d-447263-p=1) - 8th most touches
2002 (http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats;jsessionid=7061F6FDF774FAD82613388BF 42CD680?archive=true&seasonType=REG&d-447263-o=2&conference=null&statisticCategory=RUSHING&d-447263-s=RUSHING_ATTEMPTS&experience=null&d-447263-n=1&season=2002&qualified=true&Submit=Find&tabSeq=0&d-447263-p=1) - tied for 4th
I'm noticing a pattern...

Point is - 20 carries/game is extremely reasonable for a top 10 back.

This thread might have a worthy point if Portis was banged up and losing a step, but he's not. He seems to be playing his best ball of the year these last few weeks and he looks as fresh as ever.

In 2005 at this time he was definitely slowing down and banged up, this year that's simply not the case.

The Curse of 370 is real, but you can't worry about that now. Darksets makes a good point and 325 carries is a lot, but it is actually usually a fairly typical number for lead backs. In Denver Portis used to only carry 270 times, but in 2005 he had 340 carries.

Here's something to look into, does The Curse of 370 hold when backs get 370 carries INCLUDING the post-season? I would bet that many backs who go through multiple post-season games end up with 370+ carries for the season. I think, however, that the 370 carry mark holds only for the number of regular season carries (and then post-season carries on top of that).

EDIT:

Found an answer to the question. Looks like post-season carries do count (which I guess makes sense ... duh). Like I said, can't worry about that now but it will bear watching next year. It's not a totally ridiculous thread, IMHO, but not much to be done at this point in time. I'm also not 100% convinced by the numbers and wonder if the causal link is that direct. I think other factors must be involved as well.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2007 (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/01/01/ramblings/stat-analysis/4764/)

Man, you ride this guy until he gives out, then you rest him and put in your very capable backup.

also, there are many awesome unheralded backs coming out in the draft this year, if we want a change. I heard somewhere that Rock may be looking for a bit more money, but I don't remember where I heard that. If he leaves, I'd be all for drafting a young fresh back.

Well Gibbs tried resting him in the Dallas game and CP wanted back in to get to 100 yards rushing. I think CP is in better health now than in the start of the season.