F... Kool-Aid

I'm really not sure what was so great about the post you responded to that rendered it worthy of your "best post on the Warpath in a long, long time" designation, or what about it inspired you to suggest starting a select "rational" thread group. The bottom line is that the guy who started this thread, whose post was essentially attacked by the guy whose post you loved so much, basically suggested the same thing--that game predictions come with a wee bit of analysis. I agree witht the guy who started the thread.

Yeah I was going to say something similar. In the end, I'm essentially calling for a return to intelligent debate. Of course we can't predict the future or say with any certainty what's going to happen. If anybody thinks that's what I was suggesting when I started the thread, you need to go back and re-read.

But if you're an optimist, and you "believe" the Skins are going to make the playoffs, are you just going to state your belief on these boards over and over? Or are you actually going to say something that may PERSUADE others to believe the same thing you do?

You can't just say "I just believe it." You can't just say "for some reason, I think we'll win." That's not an argument, that doesn't persuade anybody. Give stats, cite examples, explain the hows and whys. THAT is what persuades.

I've seem some great posts within this thread. It's nice to see. We're not attacking optimists and pessimists anymore, we're discussing and analyzing the Redskins on a Redskins fan site.

As for my thoughts on the team, despite our injury troubles, we still have some strategic advantages I think we COULD put to good use:

- If Santana Moss and Randle El both play this weekend, and in games in the future, I think we have the capability to hit on some big plays which we weren't doing earlier in the year. Moss in particular has seen a lot of near-miss passes this year. Seems JC has just missed him on a number of throws. I'm still waiting for Moss to explode, because he's too good to put up 600 receiving yards as he's on pace for now.

- I think our mental toughness and character can lead to a very physical style of football down the stretch. I want to see JC open up the offense, but at the same time, when we're running I want to see extremely physical football. The mean streak can be taken up a notch. I just recall '05 when we just beat people up in December. And I remember last year when the line jelled and Betts strung together 5 100 yard games in a row. Portis has already started to get going, I can see us performing well in the run game down the stretch.

However my concern lies with our D. I think it's on our corners now that ST is out for a bit. GW needs to let the corners play some more man defense. We're going to need Carter getting after the QB to cover for ST's absence. And if Carter is running upfield after the QB, we're going to need safeties coming up to support the run, because Carter's going to be out of position. And if the safeties are supporting the run defense, then it comes back to the corners to lock dudes down. At least that's how I see it, we'll see how GW plays it.

The Skins will make the playoffs because they are currently one game out of the WC hunt. The Giants will fold in the second half of the season as usual. They are a good team but their second half schedule is too hard. The only way I see them winning more than 2 games is if NE loses before they play each other in wk 17. The Lions will be swept by GB and lose to Dallas. That's at least 3 losses for them. So, the SKins can reasonably lose 2 games and still be the 5 seed.
TB has no running backs left, their offense lives on the big pass and while their Def is stopping most teams through the air, you can grind out long drives on them all day. If there is any good team that we match up perfect against, this is it.
The Bills offense is non-existent and their defense is spotty. They give up yards but not points. Which is convenient because the Skins get yards but not points.
The Bears D is coming back around but have too many missing pieces from last year. Plus, they still haven't figured out a qb.
With the extra time off, maybe the Skins will be rested enough to play a full game against the Giants. If so, a victory. If not, a loss.
The Skins will beat the Vikings badly if they gameplan them as they did the Lions. The Vikes have no pass defense but the stuff the run well.
Then, Cowboys again who will probably have secured a bye though not #1 seed.
So, 2 losses (Cowboys and either Bears or Giants). Puts the Skins at 10-6 and #5 seed.
Looking past that, they should beat whatever teams win the South and West (IMO Tampa and Arizona).
Then it's GB @ Lambeau (eliminate rain and ....) and finally Cowboys in Texas.
So, at this point, I'm sticking to a season that ends in Dallas after a 10-6 record. And another offseason where I'm pissed until June.

Most people frequent this site to keep up on the latest redskins news, chat about the season and read about what kinky move AMD and his wife were doing this week when the kids interrupted them. when a thread with a debatable subject is created, we state our opinions. No one is directly trying to persuade people, we are just expressing what we believe.




But if you're an optimist, and you "believe" the Skins are going to make the playoffs, are you just going to state your belief on these boards over and over? Or are you actually going to say something that may PERSUADE others to believe the same thing you do?

You can't just say "I just believe it." You can't just say "for some reason, I think we'll win." That's not an argument, that doesn't persuade anybody. Give stats, cite examples, explain the hows and whys. THAT is what persuades.


Why can't we say that? You did in your very next post and the example you cite is we've been close all year...
What makes you think campbell will connect when he has an open WR?
What makes you think our oline is going to give the WR enough time to run downfield?




- If Santana Moss and Randle El both play this weekend, and in games in the future, I think we have the capability to hit on some big plays which we weren't doing earlier in the year. Moss in particular has seen a lot of near-miss passes this year. Seems JC has just missed him on a number of throws. I'm still waiting for Moss to explode, because he's too good to put up 600 receiving yards as he's on pace for now.


There are something you just can't backup with stats or examples. How do you measure mental toughness of a team? If an underachieving team plays poorly for the first half of the season then finally play up to their potential the final half of the season, are they mentally though?

- I think our mental toughness and character can lead to a very physical style of football down the stretch. I want to see JC open up the offense, but at the same time, when we're running I want to see extremely physical football. The mean streak can be taken up a notch. I just recall '05 when we just beat people up in December. And I remember last year when the line jelled and Betts strung together 5 100 yard games in a row. Portis has already started to get going, I can see us performing well in the run game down the stretch.



I believe the redskins are going to shock the cowboys tomorrow. Not because of a matchup we can exploit, because it's a rivalry! Weird things happen in a rivalry, unfortunately I have absolutely no definitive proof to persuade you.

The redskins will win tomorrow! HA!

And the "haterade" drinkers have been churning out rational, coherent, and persuasive arguments? I don't know about you, but I've read an awful lot of "Gibbs be the worresest coach in the leeg," "the Redskins couldnt beet a hi-school teem," etc.

Hmmm, kind of like:

Lets focus on the brite side of things, we are still in it. Let's support our team to beat the cowboys this Sunday.

What makes you think campbell will connect when he has an open WR?

Because over his last four games, his completion % is at 61.3%. In the five games before that, it was 58%. He's improving his accuracy.


What makes you think our oline is going to give the WR enough time to run downfield?

Because in the last two games, the line has given up two sacks. In the previous seven games, they gave up 12 sacks.


I believe the redskins are going to shock the cowboys tomorrow. Not because of a matchup we can exploit, because it's a rivalry! Weird things happen in a rivalry, unfortunately I have absolutely no definitive proof to persuade you.

The redskins will win tomorrow! HA!

You think rivalries cause wins? Because weird things happen? This is why you can't simply state a belief AND be taken seriously at the same time. It was a strong rivalry in the late 90s and early 2000s, and we got our ass handed to us 12 straight times or whatever it was. It's a rivalry for the Cowboys too, you know. There is a team on the other side of this rivalry, after all. Couldn't "wierd" things happen in their favor? In the end, you're not saying anything here. You're just hoping. You have to stick with the word "believe" when talking about our chances tomorrow, because you clearly haven't given it any thought.

I'm concerned about our running game in Dallas.

Check these numbers:

-- No Redskin running back has rushed for over 100 yards in Dallas since Earnest Byner in 1991 (22 carries, 101 yds)

-- Clinton Portis has been held to less than 70 yards rushing in 8 games against the NFC East over 18 match-ups.

-- Portis averages 76 yards per game against the NFC East.

For some reason, our running game grinds to a halt in Texas Stadium. Portis needs to come through for this team like he did in that 5-game stretch in '05. As a matter of fact, the whole team needs to do that.

Because over his last four games, his completion % is at 61.3%. In the five games before that, it was 58%. He's improving his accuracy.


Because in the last two games, the line has given up two sacks. In the previous seven games, they gave up 12 sacks.

The stats you provided don't prove much. He has a 61.3% completion percentage on all of his throws. Unfortunately most of those those throws are short routes.

JC has one completion over 50 yards all year. He hasn't completed a pass over 40 yards since week 3. He's missed wide open WR's down field at key points in a game all year. Yet you believe he will start connecting on deep balls because his accuracy on his short throws is decent. Clearly you haven't given your stats any thought.


The redskins have given up 12 sacks all year which isn't bad. but, most of the redskins passing plays are 3 and 5 step drops so JC can get the ball out quickly.
The redskins have only allowed 2 sacks in the last 2 games which doesn't mean much since it was our best rushing outing all year. The redskins dominated the eagles Dline last week. Once the skins gave up the lead and had to pass, they got to JC. if the redskins are in a position where they have to pass, they won't have time for a 7 step drop passing play.





You think rivalries cause wins? Because weird things happen? This is why you can't simply state a belief AND be taken seriously at the same time. It was a strong rivalry in the late 90s and early 2000s, and we got our ass handed to us 12 straight times or whatever it was. It's a rivalry for the Cowboys too, you know. There is a team on the other side of this rivalry, after all. Couldn't "wierd" things happen in their favor? In the end, you're not saying anything here. You're just hoping. You have to stick with the word "believe" when talking about our chances tomorrow, because you clearly haven't given it any thought.
Absolutely! In the redskins cowboys rivalry, the underdog pulls off upsets. Is it a coincidence that the most unlikely victories/losses in redskins history are against the cowboys? Mark Brunell launching a bomb 50+ yards twice in 1 minute isn't weird? What about the troyvincent fg block that lead to an ST recovery and facemask? On the flip side, what about the cowboys 1 win season, their only win was against an undefeated redskins team that went on to win the superbowl. Let's not even bring up clint longley, the replacements game or any other.

I'm concerned about our running game in Dallas.

Check these numbers:

-- No Redskin running back has rushed for over 100 yards in Dallas since Earnest Byner in 1991 (22 carries, 101 yds)

-- Clinton Portis has been held to less than 70 yards rushing in 8 games against the NFC East over 18 match-ups.

-- Portis averages 76 yards per game against the NFC East.

For some reason, our running game grinds to a halt in Texas Stadium. Portis needs to come through for this team like he did in that 5-game stretch in '05. As a matter of fact, the whole team needs to do that.

What's worse is that this team has won in Dallas just once since 2000. That's 1/6, not exactly a record to hang your hat on. Don't get me wrong, I would love to see us win tomorrow. I just don't think it is reasonable to expect us to beat a superior team in a stadium in which our track record is awful.

JC has one completion over 50 yards all year. He hasn't completed a pass over 40 yards since week 3. He's missed wide open WR's down field at key points in a game all year. Yet you believe he will start connecting on deep balls because his accuracy on his short throws is decent. Clearly you haven't given your stats any thought.

The problem with grading Campbell's deep ball accuracy is that he averages about two deep balls a game. The quarterbacks who hit a good number of deep balls miss a lot too. Watch any Pats or Colts game, and you'll see a ton of missed deep passes. The difference is, Brady and Manning take around 5-6 deep shots per game. All they have to do is hit one of them and people think they're great at throwing the deep ball.