Portis v. Betts: The Grass is Always Greener

What's really impressive about Shanahan is how he's won three Super Bowls with three different running backs....oh wait

True enough that Selvin Young had a nice run, but he also averaged 3.8 yards per carry last night. Moreover, since Portis left Denver, exactly how many 1,500 yard rushers has Denver had? Zero. Since Portis left Denver, exactly how many Pro Bowlers has Denver had? Zero. Denver has gone through a whole host of backs in an attempt to find a feature back and guess what? Denver hasn't found a feature back. They had to sign a big name free agent in his late twenties with a drug problem to a big deal. So the idea that Denver can plug anyone into their system and he will become some huge stud is simply a myth.

I posted this in another thread, but I am also posting it here because it is appropriate.

Offensive lines in Seattle, St. Louis, KC and NYJ are having an awful time opening running lanes for their backs. And, to no surprise, Shawn Alexander, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, and Thomas Jones are having a really hard time running the ball. Did all of those guys suddenly lose their talent or desire to win? No and the same is true of Portis.

If Portis had not been injured in 2006 making an all-out effort to tackle a guy, we wouldn't be talking about Portis having lost it. We would simply be saying that Portis, like Jackson, Alexander, Johnson, and Jones is a victim of circumstance. To be honest, it kind of makes me nauseous to trash a guy like Portis who goes all out on every play (and is worse for the wear for it).

I do appreciate the stats and thought that you have put into this thread dgack. Your posts have been among the most coherent and best-supported on this site in the past week or so. But, putting the stats aside, are you honestly seeing the O-line doing a good job opening lanes? If so, why is Betts rushing for under 3 yards per carry? I realize that Betts needs to find a rhythm, but less than 3 yards per carry (the worst of his career)? So Portis is having the worst year (ypc-wise) and it is because he is washed up, meanwhile Betts is averaging a full ypc less than Portis and he is a victim of circumstance (i.e., not getting the ball enough and playing behind a poor o-line)?

Seriously, Washington fans are almost never pleased with who is playing. They almost always want the "other" guy, even if the current starter guy holds the franchise record for most rushing yards in a season. And the worst of it all is those same people are the ones who complain about the lack of stability, the player turnover, and "little Danny's free agent spending sprees." Give me a -------- break.

What exactly is making people say that Portis is wearing down? In 2004 and 2005 he was a stud (unless you don't consider 1,300+ and 1,500+ rushing seasons beastly), even if his ypc was not great in 2003. In 2006 the guy had a freak injury making a the kind of balls-out play that we expect of our players. In 2007, again the guy is getting hit in the backfield and people wonder about his production? PLEASE.

Is it possible that Portis is wearing down? Yes. Have we seen enough of Portis to make that conclusion? No. But, perhaps the 2.9 per carry guy will be better.

MTReskinsfan - yeah i agree with ya, our coaching approach to the game is messed up.

For gibbs smashmouth, protect the ball, control the clock football to work we need a strong O-line and solid runningbacks . . . unfortunately our O-line got the injury-bug and our starter portis is playing slow and our #2 guy needs carries to get in rythm but he doesnt get the ball enough to get it started.

I VOTED PORTIS b/c he is the better all-around back but i think betts is a better fit for gibbs offense scheme = cluster f*$k

I think Portis is on a different level than Betts. But I don't think he is 100% yet. Until he gets 100%, I would put Betts back there, especially because Betts seems motivated and wants more carries.

What exactly is making people say that Portis is wearing down? In 2004 and 2005 he was a stud (unless you don't consider 1,300+ and 1,500+ rushing seasons beastly), even if his ypc was not great in 2003. In 2006 the guy had a freak injury making a the kind of balls-out play that we expect of our players. In 2007, again the guy is getting hit in the backfield and people wonder about his production? PLEASE.

Is it possible that Portis is wearing down? Yes. Have we seen enough of Portis to make that conclusion? No. But, perhaps the 2.9 per carry guy will be better.

What's wearing him down is the fact that he carried the ball almost 350 times a season for back-to-back seasons. As I've said a number of times, his ypc is way, way, WAY down since leaving Denver, in part because we're trying to hammer a square peg into a round hole by forcing him into an offense that isn't well-designed for his body or talents. He's making it work by compensating with quantity, and that is taking its toll on his body.

Again, this effect is well known in fantasy football circles, but this is a case where the fantasy impact does correlate back to the real game because it directly speaks to a RB's durability and career longevity.

Here's are some of the articles on the topic:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2007 (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/index.php?p=4764) (this one isn't bad)
David Yudkin - RB Production After Seasons With 400+ Touches (Including Regular & Postseason) (http://footballguys.com/06yudkin_400touches.php) (more FF oriented than "real" NFL based)
Pro-football-reference.com blog » Running Back Overuse and Injuries, Part One (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=328)
Pro-football-reference.com blog » Running Back Overuse and Injuries, Part Two (Playoff Edition) (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=330) (by far the best articles I've read on the phenomenon)
FootballDocs Fantasy Football - Effect of Running Back Carries on Future Production (http://www.footballdocs.com/RB_carries_2005.html) (this one is old but it's interesting to see how their predictions panned out)

What exactly is making people say that Portis is wearing down? In 2004 and 2005 he was a stud (unless you don't consider 1,300+ and 1,500+ rushing seasons beastly), even if his ypc was not great in 2003. In 2006 the guy had a freak injury making a the kind of balls-out play that we expect of our players. In 2007, again the guy is getting hit in the backfield and people wonder about his production? PLEASE.

Is it possible that Portis is wearing down? Yes. Have we seen enough of Portis to make that conclusion? No. But, perhaps the 2.9 per carry guy will be better.The sheer number of carries in 2005. He always seemed to fall on his shoulders after contact and I thought that it might save his legs a bit.

Well, what happens in the first preseason game he plays following a long offseason following an abusive year? Shoulder subluxation. Is that freak injury? If your shoulders get abused and then you hurt your shoulder?

Then this year with the nagging knee tendonitis and then a sprained knee, and virtually zero effectiveness.

Can a healthy Portis still provide a burst? Maybe, but 6 years into his career, healthy is relative, and that's just not good enough.

He is a high effort guy who can still contibute to this team in so many ways, but I just can't defend him as a running threat any more. I'm almost thinking his best use is short yardage at this point because he always delivers a blow.

Of course, we don't run in short yardage, so I guess the point is moot.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree. I think Portis is more than a 3rd down, change of pace back that offiss thinks he is. I also still think he is a "running threat" GTripp. But, only time will tell. I admit that I could be wrong, even though I strongly believe that I am right.

And to reiterate, I DON'T know that Betts can do any better. He did have the longest run of the day against Arizona and it should have been a TD.

I do know that Betts is fresh, relatively healthy, and has no theoretical abuse issues. Sellers is the same way...but he can't block for himself.