Portis v. Betts: The Grass is Always Greener

I've been a staunch CP defender for a long time, and I don't think that the argument is "Ladell is better than Clinton", but more like "something is wrong with Clinton and Ladell might be on par with him". Or, put a different way, "for a guy with supposedly so much more talent, CP surely isn't producing that much more than Betts".

Such arguments only make sense in the context of "well, if we traded Portis for..." type scenarios.

For the record, I think something is DEFINITELY wrong with Portis, just as I think something is wrong with Santana. And both of their issues go beyond the O-line.

Also, though you're correct about their respective yd/carry stats, I think that's a pretty weak argument given that Betts has had roughly a third of the touches that Portis has. More carries equal more opportunities to establish a rhythm and break off longer runs, which increase your average. And, Portis himself loves to claim that he "gets stronger as the game goes on" (though that's total horseshit).

Frankly, the most damning stat in the run game is that even though he's had 3X the number of carries, CP's long run of the season is a tepid 19 yard jog, while Betts' long is 13.

Want to see a disturbing trend? Look at Portis' career rushing longs since he entered the league. They go down every year after his second year in Denver.

59, 65, 64, 47, 38, 19

Those are not the be all, end all of stats, and doesn't mean he's totally washed up, but those "big plays" are a hallmark of a "game changing" back, and the rapid disappearance of those big plays from Portis' stat sheets, IMHO, points to a simple fact that some here need to come to grips with:

Simply put, CP is not the guy we acquired from Denver for Champ. He's not even the same guy who fought through injuries in '05 to set the franchise rushing record. Right now, as far as a pure rusher, he's below NFL average.

Doesn't mean he doesn't "fight his guts out", or that he isn't a great blocker, locker room leader, etc. But I think it means that he is not really likely to be a major element in winning games for this team, at least not this year. And time is against him, as it is against all NFL RB's.

It should also be noted that Portis had *exceptionally* high carries his first two years here, well over 300 in back to back years. Not a surprise to this squad given what happened last year, but it's also a pretty well known stats that RB's who see a excessive touches (carries + receptions) are almost universally due for injury problems and only a very minute fraction of those RB's ever return to the elite ranks again after such problems.

This effect is well documented among fantasy football circles, but it's worth mentioning here because it really does look like we're starting to see a downward slide in CP's game. If anybody's interested I can dig up one of the articles on the subject, it's an eye-opening (and, for Redskins fans, probably somewhat depressing) read.

I've been a staunch CP defender for a long time, and I don't think that the argument is "Ladell is better than Clinton", but more like "something is wrong with Clinton and Ladell might be on par with him". Or, put a different way, "for a guy with supposedly so much more talent, CP surely isn't producing that much more than Betts".

Such arguments only make sense in the context of "well, if we traded Portis for..." type scenarios.

For the record, I think something is DEFINITELY wrong with Portis, just as I think something is wrong with Santana. And both of their issues go beyond the O-line.

Also, though you're correct about their respective yd/carry stats, I think that's a pretty weak argument given that Betts has had roughly a third of the touches that Portis has. More carries equal more opportunities to establish a rhythm and break off longer runs, which increase your average. And, Portis himself loves to claim that he "gets stronger as the game goes on" (though that's total horseshit).

Frankly, the most damning stat in the run game is that even though he's had 3X the number of carries, CP's long run of the season is a tepid 19 yard jog, while Betts' long is 13.

Want to see a disturbing trend? Look at Portis' career rushing longs since he entered the league. They go down every year after his second year in Denver.

59, 65, 64, 47, 38, 19

Those are not the be all, end all of stats, and doesn't mean he's totally washed up, but those "big plays" are a hallmark of a "game changing" back, and the rapid disappearance of those big plays from Portis' stat sheets, IMHO, points to a simple fact that some here need to come to grips with:

Simply put, CP is not the guy we acquired from Denver for Champ. He's not even the same guy who fought through injuries in '05 to set the franchise rushing record. Right now, as far as a pure rusher, he's below NFL average.

Doesn't mean he doesn't "fight his guts out", or that he isn't a great blocker, locker room leader, etc. But I think it means that he is not really likely to be a major element in winning games for this team, at least not this year. And time is against him, as it is against all NFL RB's.

Solid post. However, the numbers show that Portis gets more yards per carry in the 2nd half versus the 1st half and more ypc during carries 11-20 versus carries 1-10.

Clinton Portis: Situational Stats (http://www.nfl.com/players/clintonportis/situationalstats?id=POR792942)

So he does get "better" with more carries. I think most starting backs do.

Interesting. Apparently that *wasn't* true in 2005 (ypc dropped from 4.3 -> 4.1 -> 4.0 as carries increased), and in 2006 it was only true of carries 11-20, as carries 21-30 plummet to lower averages than the 1-10 mark. In 2004 it was somewhat inverted, with his ypc dropping badly from 4.6 to 3.3 and then recovering slightly to 3.6 in carries 21-30.

What's really odd is that his early Bronco years don't show that "rule" to be much more true (for example, in 2002, his 1-10 ypc was 6.4; 11-20 was 4.7; 21-30 was 3.4, so that's getting weaker as the game goes on) but then in 2003 his 1-10 ypc was 4.8; 11-20 ypc was 5.5; 21-30 ypc was an astounding 7.4).

So, I'm not sure that this proves much other than to say that it may take CP a while to get started. And that regardless of whether he gets stronger as the game goes on, looking at his career ypc splits in Denver, and here, it looks like his best years are long behind him, IMO.

In any event, my point in referencing that so-called phenomenon at all was to point out that Ladell needs more carries to establish himself in the run game, and improve his ypc. Clinton's getting plenty of action, so I don't think he really has any excuses in that department.

WTF! Why isn't it obvious to everyone that CP is messed up. Whether he's hurt, depressed, or just looking to get out of Washington there's no real umph there.

Two predictions:

1) When Portis leaves the Redskins and/or football behind he will be one of few players who will talk candidly about how Gibbs never established a rapport w/ the players. CP is a likeable guy who generally likes everybody, but he and Gibbs don't really have any chemistry. And then you stop and think, "Gibbs doesn't really have chemistry with anyone out there."

2. Saunders, if he finally gets to take over the offense, will prefer Betts to Portis (maybe not even keep CP). Portis knows this, and if he already senses that Gibbs is out for sure after this season then he'll likely be traded. If I were Portis I would be looking ahead and avoiding as much punishment as possible this season. It's smart and good business.

Bottom line: IMO the lack of production in our ground game has as much to do w/ the coaching situation (which is a fucking mess) as it does w/ injuries to the o-line.

Thoughts?

I don't buy that CP would avoid wear-and-tear now because it will ultimately hurt his value on the open market if he's seen as damaged goods. It's in his best interest to have a great year this year, in spite of any O-Line woes we may have.

Also, it just seems to go counter to the way he tries to play. I mean, if he'll jack himself up tackling a dude in a preseason game why would he dog it in an actually meaningful one?

No, I think he's just a guy who has never been built for the type and sheer volume of running we subjected him to when he got here. He was a Jaguar and we tried to use him like a bulldozer. Needless to say, the Jag is pretty effed up right now.

WTF! Why isn't it obvious to everyone that CP is messed up. Whether he's hurt, depressed, or just looking to get out of Washington there's no real umph there.

Two predictions:

1) When Portis leaves the Redskins and/or football behind he will be one of few players who will talk candidly about how Gibbs never established a rapport w/ the players. CP is a likeable guy who generally likes everybody, but he and Gibbs don't really have any chemistry. And then you stop and think, "Gibbs doesn't really have chemistry with anyone out there."

2. Saunders, if he finally gets to take over the offense, will prefer Betts to Portis (maybe not even keep CP). Portis knows this, and if he already senses that Gibbs is out for sure after this season then he'll likely be traded. If I were Portis I would be looking ahead and avoiding as much punishment as possible this season. It's smart and good business.

Bottom line: IMO the lack of production in our ground game has as much to do w/ the coaching situation (which is a fucking mess) as it does w/ injuries to the o-line.

Thoughts?

Following last season, Portis gave a great interview on the John Thompson Show on SportsTalk 980 in DC and strongly defended Gibbs. He talked about how Gibbs has an open door policy and at meetings encourages people to voice their complaints.

The running game was fine when our backup had 1,000 yards rushing in half a season in 2006. And it was fine when Portis set the franchise rushing record and he and the defense carried the team to the playoffs in 2005

Portis. Portis. Portis. Betts can't break the big one and CP could use a healthy O-Line, which we just don't have. No Jansen, Thomas, no big holes to run through. Betts is fine, but he did what he did last year in the 2nd half on a 5-11 team. We're going to be 5-3 after we beat the Jets next week. And Portis is the better back.

I don't buy that CP would avoid wear-and-tear now because it will ultimately hurt his value on the open market if he's seen as damaged goods. It's in his best interest to have a great year this year, in spite of any O-Line woes we may have.

Also, it just seems to go counter to the way he tries to play. I mean, if he'll jack himself up tackling a dude in a preseason game why would he dog it in an actually meaningful one?

No, I think he's just a guy who has never been built for the type and sheer volume of running we subjected him to when he got here. He was a Jaguar and we tried to use him like a bulldozer. Needless to say, the Jag is pretty effed up right now.

I think CP will jack himself up in any situation when he believes in what he's doing and believes in the team. Again, I have to go back to the bigger picture. CP sees this mess from the inside out and probably says "WTF! This season ain't going no where." (literally, i bet he used those words). Then he realizes that his time here is limited w/ Saunders era just around the corner. I wouldn't want to take much punishment in this situation either, especially if I want to play football beyond my 20's. As to his value, I think CP is sort of beyond some of that shit. I think he wants to win more than he wants to get rich. Don't be surprised if he ends up w/ lesser, but key, role w/ a real contender and for a smaller contract.

The running game was fine when our backup had 1,000 yards rushing in half a season in 2006. And it was fine when Portis set the franchise rushing record and he and the defense carried the team to the playoffs in 2005

While true, Portis has been running harder and more to make the same yardage that he was racking up in Denver at a much more manageable workload.

I just don't think you can run a guy nearly 700 times in 2 years and expect him to not break down.