How good will JaMarcus Russell be at the Pro Level?

and mcnabb and marino and montana and manning i can go on and on but i fear i will die listing namesQuake, I have no idea what your point is. Mine is that physical skills count for next to nothing at this level.

Damn, do I admire your sig though.

Masterfully written article by John Clayton illustrating my point:

ESPN.com - NFL/DRAFT07 - Clayton: Evaluating QBs just got tougher (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft07/columns/story?columnist=clayton_john&id=2839055)


u have a point but so do i just showing that draft picking is not a science it is a luck thing

Quake, I have no idea what your point is. Mine is that physical skills count for next to nothing at this level.

Damn, do I admire your sig though.


my point is that once again there is no sure thing when it comes to drafting anybody thats all i am trying to say

u have a point but so do i just showing that draft picking is not a science it is a luck thingAt some point, you just have to hope you picked the right guy. That doesn't mean that certain features (like college experience) generally indicate a good prospect.

At QB, however, its a whole different animal. There is just so much data on college QBs that we can easily correlate any first round talent with the busts of the last ten years or the guys who panned out. Like, I can say with 99% certainty that Quinn>Russell. Brady Quinn just has to stay healthy and avoid circumstances that could ruin his career. Russell should have stayed in school one more year.

At some point, you just have to hope you picked the right guy. That doesn't mean that certain features (like college experience) generally indicate a good prospect.

At QB, however, its a whole different animal. There is just so much data on college QBs that we can easily correlate any first round talent with the busts of the last ten years or the guys who panned out. Like, I can say with 99% certainty that Quinn>Russell. Brady Quinn just has to stay healthy and avoid circumstances that could ruin his career. Russell should have stayed in school one more year.


god man i respect the hell out of you but i just cant put quinn over russell man i just cant inhave weighed every possible option and i just cant

god man i respect the hell out of you but i just cant put quinn over russell man i just cant inhave weighed every possible option and i just cantThat's cool.

I think you are a smarter talent evaluator than Todd McShay anyway. :food-smil

Everybody is entited to their opinion, but at some point, a lot of the scouts that ignore college stats for more flashy things like arm are going to get their roles reduced within their respective organizations and have their duties handed over to the better, more objective scouts.

NFL teams will get this QB scouting thing down to a science soon. IMO, it's just a tragedy that they haven't yet. You just have to wonder how many times Scouts can screw up and make excuses before the teams go hire someone else.

The Redskins actually have a really good college scouting department. It's too bad we trade all of our draft picks because I think the guys in our scouting department give us an inherent drafting advantage over most other teams. We seem to choose not to exercise this advantage.

Eventually teams will catch up to Philadelphia and NE in drafting the right guys because, after all, its really not rocket science. You pick the most talented guy with a good deal of experience at a need position, and hope that he doesn't unexpectedly bust. Avoiding underclassmen is a good way to cut down on busts.

And that right there is the source of the whole scouting issue. The fact that these guys think that they are one of only a select few in the world that can do their job. Learning how to be a good scout takes little experience as long as you are observant and willing to learn from past errors. Most guys in the league today simply aren't.

Also, if you are interested in seeing how some of the top QBs in this draft project to the NFL, this article is for you:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2006 and 2005 (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/04/17/ramblings/nfl-draft/5082/)

Money Quote:

Here is the complete list of players drafted in first two rounds over the past ten years who started at least 35 games and completed at least 57 percent of their passes: Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler.

Are there any bad players on that list? The worst according to my numbers is Eli Manning, and he’s been decent (maybe not up to expectations, but decent). I would be happy to spend a top ten pick on most of those players.

One more for the road:

I am hardly pleased to call out Russell as a likely bust, and given the right situation and good coaching I am sure he could defy the odds and become a good pro. However, players like Russell rarely do.

Here’s that under 30 starts list again: Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Michael Vick, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Alex Smith.

Sorry, Raiders fans.

How do you figure?

I'm not going off of the combine stuff. Russell didn't even throw at the combine. I'm just going off of when I saw him play in games. He was making John Elway/Jeff George kind of throws. Just zipping it in small windows. Simply put no one in this draft has that kind of passing ability. Now that does not mean he is going to be a great pro qb. I'm just saying based on his college games he looked like a can't miss.

Tripp, that is so funny that you brought up the Kyle Boller analogy with Jamarcus. I was about to bring that up, but I figured I'd go check some of your posts just in case. Sure enough, there it was. LOL!! When I heard Todd McShay bring up the whole 60 yd "Butt Throw" by Russell, I laughed my ass off (forgive the pun). Who friggin cares if he can throw it behind his back with his eyes closed, off the rafters, into the endzone??? How on earth does meaningless crap like that translate to the football field??

The comparison of Leinart to Quinn is very valid:
Leinart: played 4 years (3 of which he started) in a pro-style offense with a NFL caliber talent all around him and a pro-style coach. His leadership and smarts coupled with all that experience = success.
Quinn: also played 4 seasons, starting 3, and played in a pro-style offense with an NFL coach, and also played in some huge games.

I also like Quinn over Russell. He's got size and athleticism, plus Weis absolutely raves about him. Sure he's kind of obligated too, but Weis developed a guy named Tom Brady. Last I checked he's done okay. Hearing Weis wholeheartedly compare Brady with Quinn has got to make some FO's drool.

But I don't think we can say Russell has less of a chance of success. Vince Young only played 3 seasons. Cutler only played 3 seasons. They both did well and look to be developing nicely. I guess it's the decision making that may take a little longer to come around with QBs that leave school early. Like you said, at some point you just have to hope you pick the right guy.

I'm not going off of the combine stuff. Russell didn't even throw at the combine. I'm just going off of when I saw him play in games. He was making John Elway/Jeff George kind of throws. Just zipping it in small windows. Simply put no one in this draft has that kind of passing ability. Now that does not mean he is going to be a great pro qb. I'm just saying based on his college games he looked like a can't miss.I'm wary of anyone who makes a name for himself with pinpoint accuracy at the college level, especially if he has a rep for making poor decisions. That doesn't fly in the NFL.

The John Elway comparison sounds pretty accurate...but historic greatness is not predictable before the draft. Elway did a lot of stuff at the college level that Russell doesn't do very well.

I want to hesitate from labeling Russell a bust candidate, but he's just not a good NFL prospect. No QB in recent memory could have used his senior year of college more than Russell. The most ideal situation for him would be 3+ years of riding the bench so that he could get pretty far into his development before having to be put under the microscope. This could allow him enough time to develop into an NFL worthy starter before he gets labeled a bust.

If he goes first overall, he's not going to have that luxury. No matter which team he ends up on, he's going to develop a rep for poor decision making and being INT prone, and probably get the bust label sometime before 2009.

No matter what, he's never going to live up to expectations. He just isn't a good decision maker, period. Most underclass QB's aren't. If he can get into a favorable situation where he doesn't have to play right away, he might earn the perception of a starting quality QB (even though he's really the exact same player--just farther along in his development). If he gets thrown to the Wolves immediately, he's going to have a very rough first three years, and in today's league, generally its three strikes and you're out.

Unfortuante but true.