How good will JaMarcus Russell be at the Pro Level?

Intelligence, motivation and education.Very well thought out and stated.

I'm convinced that good scouting principles can be learned. And to answer my own question before, I had been thinking the quarterback class of 2006 went a long way to showing that scouts had learned good player valuation. After all we hadn't had a universially overvalued player at the QB position since JP Losman in 2004. Scouts knew that Rodgers and Smith were average players in 2005 and knew that you couldn't go wrong with anybody in the class of 2006.

But lo and behold we roll around to 2007 and theres a QB debate that, in my humble opinion, really shouldn't even be occuring. We have ten years of data on successful QBs and ten years of data on unsuccessful QBs. Theres a common link between the mediocre/bust players and a seperate link between all successful players. There's three criteria that right now seems to point to a guy having a successful career.

-First, and most importantly, a guy must be projected by scouts in the first round. They have to pass the eye test as a starting QB.
-If they pass the eye test, they must have considerable experience at the NCAA level. 35 starts minimum.
-If they pass the eye test and they have the experience, they must have quality college statistics. The key stat is completion percentage and 58% (career) is the threshold that seperates overrated from underrated. (Coincedentally, Quinn falls right at this 58% for his career. Russell actually falls much higher at 62%)

Over the last ten years, no player to meet all three of these criterias has not accrued at least a certain deal of success. Players who do not meet ALL 3 usually don't have much success at the next level. They can, but it's rarely, if ever, done.

Scouts should know this by now. I'm certain the good ones already do. I'm confident that if the Raiders take Russell with Quinn on the board, they don't have any good scouts. But that really wouldn't surprise anyone here, would it?

In the long range statistics like that don't lie. Bad luck is a pick or two here and there. A sustained effort of poor results is bad personell acquisition any way you slice it.Is five years really long range though?

In 2006 the Raiders were starting (at the start of the year) Robert Gallery, Barry Sims, Jake Grove, Brad Badger, and Langston Walker. Sims was with the team when they were making deep playoff runs as the LT, but moved inside to make room for Gallery. Badger was a FA signing.

The draft picks of the bunch were Gallery, Walker, and Grove. ALL were top two round selections. Walker was picked with one of the compensatory picks for Gruden.

I'm hesitant to say that it's the Raiders' fault for making 2 bad selections and an alright one in Grove (the consensus best lineman on that team). They invested a lot into Walker and Gallery and got no return.

But they are offensive linemen. It's hard to collect data on them. You have film and nothing else. Despite that MOST OL pan out. The Raiders managed to stumble on 2-3 busts. That's pretty unlucky. I mean if I spent 5 top 2 round picks on lineman, I would expect at least 4 to live up to the hype. The Raiders took 3 and got nobody to live up to the hype. Either the rest of the league knows something about OL the Raiders don't (which is always possible), or the Raiders just got the shaft.

It's not like they aren't building that team the right way. They just aren't getting the right men for the jobs.

No I agree but it is easy to take potshots at Oakland right now. Their overall ineptitude over the last several decades is what weighs my mind mostly. A few fleeting moments of success sandwhiched by total mediocrity. Plus Davis is just clearly out of it. I can't say who their last good draftee was.

No I agree but it is easy to take potshots at Oakland right now. Their overall ineptitude over the last several decades is what weighs my mind mostly. A few fleeting moments of success sandwhiched by total mediocrity. Plus Davis is just clearly out of it. I can't say who their last good draftee was.I agree. They have a weak scouting department. Both Pro and College.

To their credit they have built one of the league's strongest secondaries through the draft. Nnamdi Asomugha is the best CB in the league that no one talks about. He will take your No. 1 receiving option completely out of the game.

But honestly, this would be some sort of impressive streak of ineptitude if they hadn't happened to trip and fall on Rich Gannon. Jerry Rice would have become completely irrelivant.

*Shudder*

Gannon has to be one of the oddest players in recent memory. Here's a guy who was at best a journeyman. I mean a guy you can't even compare to say Tim Ratay who just suddnely become a pretty darn good QB. I mean if he puts together 4 more seasons like he did toward the end we're talking about a potential HOFer. Out of total nothingness comes greatness. Weird.

Gannon has to be one of the oddest players in recent memory. Here's a guy who was at best a journeyman. I mean a guy you can't even compare to say Tim Ratay who just suddnely become a pretty darn good QB. I mean if he puts together 4 more seasons like he did toward the end we're talking about a potential HOFer. Out of total nothingness comes greatness. Weird.That would have been a real dead era for QBs if it wasn't for him. I mean you had the retirement of Marino, Elway, and Young, and Favre went into a relative lull in his career for a few years. It would still be 3-4 years until McNair, Pennington, and Manning would emerge, and Brady's skills would actually develop to match the rep he had been handed. Kerry Collins was consistently among the league's top QBs!

It's got nothing to do with Russell or Quinn whatsoever, but since we are talking Raiders for some crazy reason, I thought I'd point this out.

Had Gannon not got hurt in 2004, Football Outsiders estimates that the Raiders offense would have put up 71! more points than they did with the exact same roster and Kerry Collins at QB. This is as much due to Collins ineptitude as it is to Gannon's greatness though.

In effect, if this is to be believed, that means Norv Turner was an injury away from taking the Raiders to the playoffs in his first season there.

Crazy.

btw, daunte went from pro-bowler/possible MVP in minnesota to total joke in miami (possibly all due to injury), garcia went from good in SF, to terrible in cleveland AND detriot, to good in philly. plummer went to denver and had a couple good years. brunell, hasslebeck, and favre were all traded from their original franchises before they got to start and ended up doing pretty well.

archie manning was a good QB that could have been better if on a different team.

but the real reason you don't see a lot for average QBs turn into studs 6 years in after switching teams is cause at that point they've either had a stable environment to learn and work in over a good number of years, or they're considered a backup and brought in to learn a totally new system that they may or may not be used to with new players, possibly an entrenched starter, etc. It's just a hard transition. I mean, peyton's only known ONE system. same for brady, and mcnabb, and... that's gotta be part of it.

I mean, the teams that keep churning through 1st round busts are the same ones that keep changing coaches, systems, and players for the most part. detroit, oakland, cleveland, etc. of course, that doesn't mean all those QB picks were good ideas in the first place (who EVER thought boller would be any good? continuity DID help him, but only marginally).

I do agree that, at least for most QBs, they tend to how you what they got within a few years, unless they're backing up favre or named mark rypien.

This is a really well written article from David Fleming that investigates a few of the flaws in the way QBs are scouted today.

ESPN.com - NFL/DRAFT07 - Magazine: The edge of reason (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft07/news/story?id=2834663)

And Russell? He started just 29 games. Yet by leaving school early, Russell -- whose start numbers are comparable to those of Rex Grossman (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6358) (31), Joey Harrington (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5889) (28), Jim Druckenmiller (24) and Akili Smith (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4651) (19) -- has kept the scouts from piling up the dossier needed to overanalyze him. He also benefits from a backlash against the old-time NFL evaluators who bad-mouthed Young last year, only to watch him become an NFL phenom. Those scouts are far less inclined to rip Russell, leaving a power vacuum in most war rooms this spring that favors the "potential" believers over the "pedigree" crowd.

It's a good read.

Who knows, he hasen't played at this level yet?

I'm not entirely sold on Russell. could be another Dante Culpepper, with some NFL success. or could be another Akili Smith, who with Ryan Leaf formed the 2 biggest NFL busts ever

nah man he will be a great qb has all the tools