How good will JaMarcus Russell be at the Pro Level?

Interesting point.

I don't see Vince Young as an exception to the arguement. I think Young made a good business decision to come out, but this arguement still thinks that he would have been a much better prospect had he waited a year.

His rookie season was pretty much what anybody would have expected from a rookie QB passing wise. Low completion %, high INTs. The Titans won more games because he made timely plays with his legs and just happened to stumble upon some hapless opponents (Giants).

But due to the results of this, I don't think theres ever going to be a prospect who is "just that good" or otherwise too good to return for another year. They can always better themselves.

Passing wise I thought he did better than anyone could have expected. 12td's and 13ints is not bad at all for a rookie. He played in a veer offense, the same as Alex Smith. Smith was god awful his first year. But you saw the big jump from year one and two with Smith and I think you will see the same with Young. But one thing this guy can do is just kill you with his legs. McNabb is the best passer/runner. He can kill you with both. I think if Young can stay with Chow he is going to be just as good as McNabb.

Everyone is in love with his physical skills. They are off the charts. The only question is will he be able to handle the larger playbooks, reading NFL defenses and have good decision making. Brady Quinn is ahead of him here becasue he got to play under Weiss and a true pro offense. Quinn is probably ready to play now more than anybody. But the draft is all about potential and no one has more of it than Russell. That is why he will be the number one pick.I dissagree with the entire notion that draft analysts push that one prospect can be better now, and somehow NOT the better overall prospect. I understand your point about Quinn's coaching, but it's not like Russell or any QB in D1 has to play playground-style because they lack coaching. Tom Brady did pretty well for himself after Weis left.

Now, it is possible for a guy to be a product of system, in college. But those guys do not end up being first day picks. Any scout that can't identify a guy as a product of his system with relative ease shouldn't be in the business.

My beef with the draft analysts theory has to do with what they THINK they know, but really don't, and are passing off as common knowledge. I have a problem with people in the mass media being of the opinion that Quinn can be better now, but Russell will be better later. No. This is wrong. If God told me that JaMarcus Russell was in fact (going to be) the best QB of this draft class, then I would have absolutely no reason in the world to expect any QB to have a better rookie season. Honestly, all the Charlie Weis coaching in the world is not going to help Brady Quinn if Russell is the better player. IF HES GOING TO BE THE BEST PROSPECT LATER, HE SHOULD ALSO BE THE BEST NOW!! Variatons from this general rule DO occur...but they can not be predicted.

(I'm not directing any of this at you Skinsfan69, this rant is entirely directed at people who get paid thousands of dollars to go on TV and give information that ignores logic)

So forget upside, I want to know who the better QB is. I reject the notion that Quinn can be better now and not later. I think Quinn is the better prospect for a multitude of reasons, maybe the biggest being that he stayed in school. But for the life of me I can't figure out what compells analysts to declare an inferior prospect to have enormous upside.

It's like JaMarcus Russell skinned his knee as a child, and instead of oozing blood, he leaked upside.

And none of this is his fault. He's in great position to become a millionaire at age 22. But what he gains now is essentially a trade off for the fact that (in my opinion in light of the data) hes not going to collect a big secondary deal. I think he plays out his 7 year rookie deal as a starter, and signs somewhere as a backup after that.

This guy had one of the best seasons ever played by an NFL QB just a few years ago. And now he's finished? I would think not. Let's see what he does this year with a good offensive coach and perhaps some more weapons around him. Although I'm not sure what the Fish have in mind letting go of Walker and McMichael. But the guy has not been the same w/out Moss.I agree with you. Culpepper is a very good, borderline great QB. He will be fine once he's healthy--assuming that time ever comes.

i think russell will be a good pro qb,hes got the heighth,the arm,and the athletisism.plus hes an intelligent qb.

Passing wise I thought he did better than anyone could have expected. 12td's and 13ints is not bad at all for a rookie. He played in a veer offense, the same as Alex Smith. Smith was god awful his first year. But you saw the big jump from year one and two with Smith and I think you will see the same with Young. But one thing this guy can do is just kill you with his legs. McNabb is the best passer/runner. He can kill you with both. I think if Young can stay with Chow he is going to be just as good as McNabb.Yes, this is a common phenemenon. Rookie to second year tends to be a big statistical jump in passing. I expect Young to become a league-competant passer this year.

Alex Smith's rookie season was catastrophically bad. He was one rare exception to my prior argument.

Young's probably going to be better than McNabb in his prime.

It's always difficult to predetermine how a player (espically a QB) will perform when moving from the college level to pro, only time will tell on that one.

Your post however does shed light on some interesting concepts. I'm just hoping that our QB (Jason Campbell) continues to mature at the rate we have hoped. That's the most interesting part of the upcoming season, watching the continued maturation process of Campbell.Actually, this brings up the big idea here:

Quarterbacks do so much more and we have so much more collegiate data on them than any other position--possibly all other positions combined.

Why haven't scouts been able by this point to seperate busts from great prospects? Trial and Error was to be expected for a few years, but shouldn't the best scouts have been able to do the exact same research I just did and see that one prospect can not have more "upside" without being the best prospect in the present.

smith didnt do to bad last year cause he had turner help him out.now turner is the coach of san diego,which will screw that teams chance of winning up.

i think russell will be a good pro qb,hes got the heighth,the arm,and the athletisism.plus hes an intelligent qb.Congrats on reaching 100.

Read the inital post in this thread.

i did and i replied i think hell be a good pro qb duh.

smith didnt do to bad last year cause he had turner help him out.now turner is the coach of san diego,which will screw that teams chance of winning up.Smith just went though his natural progression. I'm sure Norv helped a little bit...but no matter who the coach was, Smith was bound to improve immensely over his abysmal rookie year.

He wasn't any good last year either, but he stopped hurting his team which was a big help for the 49ers to win 7 games this year.