Redskins on NFL Live Monday 2/19

GTripp, here's a project for you. Find out how Wide Receivers did in their first year playing for a new team following a trade or free agent move the past few years. See if there's a significant drop-off, on average, when a receiver has a new system to play inWill do.

I used Football Outsiders DVOA metrics to try to keep it simple.

One stat that attempts to be all inclusive. It's not perfect because wide receivers don't handle the ball as much as RBs or QBs do, nor can this stat show how efficient a guy is at blocking. Just receiving and getting upfield after the catch.

One thing I have to point out; this is a per play statistic. Therefore a ranking of 18 doesn't necessarily mean the 18th best receiver in the league. It means on the plays he had, he did better than all but 17 guys in the league (In 2006, Devery Henderson finished no. 1 in WR DVOA. No one in their right mind thinks that Devery Henderson is the leagues top WR right now, but he was the best per play [as a 3rd WR] in 2006. So by this metric, 3rd receivers are going to be overvalued.). Don't pay attention to the ranking number itself, pay attention to the ranking relative to the other players in the study. That's where the accuracy is. Any ranking in the top 20 is top of the league caliber. League average is about rank # 40, but varies by year.

2006
Terell Owens PHI->DAL 2006 rank: 28, 2005 rank: 32
Antwaan Randle El PIT->WAS 2006 rank: 76, 2005 rank: 77
Brandon Lloyd SF->WAS 2006 rank: 80, 2005 rank: 82
Mike Furrey StL->DET 2006 rank: 27, 2005 rank: N/A
Javon Walker GB->DEN 2006 rank: 30, 2004* rank: 22
Reche Caldwell SD->NE 2006 rank: 32, 2005 rank: N/A
Donte Stallworth NO->PHI 2006 rank: 35, 2005 rank: 44
Joe Jurevicius SEA->CLE 2006 rank: 29, 2005 rank: 10
Eric Moulds BUF->HOU 2006 rank: 37, 2005 rank: 64
Deion Branch NE->SEA 2006 rank: 53, 2005 rank: 13
Keyshawn Johnson DAL->CAR 2006 rank: 60, 2005 rank: 52
Antonio Bryant CLE->SF 2006 rank: 57, 2005 rank: 31

2005
Santana Moss NYJ->WAS 2005 rank: 5, 2004 rank: 8
Derrick Mason TEN->BAL 2005 rank: 25, 2004 rank: 43
Joe Jurevicius TB->SEA 2005 rank: 10, 2003* rank:
Randy Moss MIN->OAK 2005 rank: 36, 2004 rank: 15
Travis Taylor BAL->MIN 2005 rank: 42, 2004 rank: 80
Laverneus Coles WAS->NYJ 2005 rank: 56, 2004 rank: 71
Plaxico Burress PIT->NYG 2005 rank: 66, 2004 rank: 4
Ike Hilliard NYG->TB 2005 rank: 58, 2004 rank: 81
Mushin Muhammad CAR->CHI 2005 rank: 78, 2004 rank: 16
Az Hakim DET->NO 2005 rank: 18, 2004 rank: 19
Koren Robinson SEA->MIN 2005 rank: 55, 2004 rank: 48
David Patten NE->WAS 2005 rank: 89, 2004 rank: 30

2004
Justin McCareins TEN->NYJ 2004 rank: 23, 2003 rank: 4
Terrell Owens SF->PHI 2004 rank: 17, 2003 rank: 43
Marcus Robinson BAL->MIN 2004 rank: 36, 2003 rank: 19

These results show that a receiver rarely suffers a significant drop in production in his first year in a system. Generally a good receiver is a good receiver, and a bad receiver is a bad receiver.

Notice what happened to David Patten (or Mushin Muhammad) in 2005 though...ouch.

Also, Santana Moss is some sort of ridiculous outlier. Admittedly, he was already a top of the class receiver in New York who flew under the radar (and these numbers show that trading Coles for him was great any way you slice it), but to finish among the top 5 in per play value in his first season here is freakin unbelievable.

*-prior year lacked adequate sample size

Here GTripp, you can start with this

Chris Smith - Wide Receivers That Change Teams (http://footballguys.com/06smith_wrchanges.php)That could have saved some time.

:Flush:

LOL. You actually did it! You're like Tattoo to my Ricardo Montalban, Abu to my Aladdin, Boo Boo to my Yogi...and so on

LOL. You actually did it! You're like Tattoo to my Ricardo Montalban, Abu to my Aladdin, Boo Boo to my Yogi...and so onRicardo Montalban?

Seriously though, were you expecting me not to or something?

Ricardo Montalban?

Seriously though, were you expecting me not to or something?

Damn you're young. Somewhere JoeRedskin is crying that you don't know who Mr. Corinthian leather is. Maybe you know him better as Mr. Rourke

I'm impressed you got it done so quickly

Damn you're young. Somewhere JoeRedskin is crying that you don't know who Mr. Corinthian leather is

I'm impressed you got it done so quicklyI was actually just imitating that Taco Bell commercial with the Lions (the animal, not Detroit's crappy team).

I'd be lying if I said I knew who Ricardo Montalban was though.

I was actually just imitating that Taco Bell commercial with the Lions (the animal, not Detroit's crappy team).

I'd be lying if I said I knew who Ricardo Montalban was though.

724 gray hairs just formed on my head.

I was actually just imitating that Taco Bell commercial with the Lions (the animal, not Detroit's crappy team).

I'd be lying if I said I knew who Ricardo Montalban was though.

Oh yeah, haha I forgot about that commercial.

Ricardo is Boss (http://youtube.com/watch?v=GX-pVhTZg0U)

Shoot, Ricardo is and always will be Khan:

http://eil.com/newgallery/Star-Trek-Wrath-Of-Khan---A-260465.jpg



http://images.replacements.com/images/images5/china/C/hamilton_collection_star_trek_the_movies_with_box_ P0000014133S0002T2.jpg

Randle-El is much better than Archuletta who also got $10M to sign a contract here. But being better than Archuletta last year is hardly a form of high praise.

So in order to try not to be offensive, might I suggest that Randle-El's performance on the field - taking into account all of his field position contributions and receptions and gadget plays - did not merit a $10M signing bonus.

I don't disagree with anything in this post, in fact I agree 100%. My only point was that it's early to call ARE a bust and he had a decent year in 2006. In fact, ARE was one of the few bright spots from 06; he made plays whenever he touched the ball (even if he didn't touch the ball enough).