Does Campbell end the 'Cover 2' excuse?

oh i've got a ton of your posts saved as well.

i don't know how you can make a conclusion about any of our wide receivers this season other than Betts. if you are judging them by how often they get the ball, consider, for just a minute, maybe that's why no.8 was benched and not the receivers.

it was far from a conspiracy theory, its what happens when teams lose hope, which in spite of your FO stats, matters very much in a football game. by this time everyone in the league knew what to expect from no.8, every defensive coordinator, every defensive back and sadly our own receivers. Lloyd was the first to show his frustration at the offense.

Gibbs saw the team's spirit sag along with no.8's passes. and thats why he made the change, the theory you made earlier, that Gibbs listened to the fans for this change, is far more ridiculous than any comment about the team's morale. something neither you nor FO acknowledge.It's not a conclusion, it's just an evaluation to this point. Quality of play flucuates so much during a season, not only on a team level, but on a personal level. It would be silly to write the Lloyd and Randle El moves off this early since they have only been Redskins for 9 games. Even if they don't improve this year, recievers more than any other position can have extreme high years and extreme low years. Case in point, Mushin Muhammad. Top WR in the league in 2004, below average in 2005, and has performed very well so far this season.

But what we know about Randle El and Lloyd through nine games is this: if you remove them not getting the ball often, remove Randle El's versatility, remove all contract issues about how much they are paid because that really doesn't matter in-season, and you have two guys that as receivers though 9 games have played worse situationally than you would expect from a replacement level receiver.

DPAR is not a percetage stat, and although not getting the ball will affect totals, when you are NEGATIVE, there is no one to blame but yourself. Considering if you never saw the ball once, your DPAR would be 0.0, and Randle El and Lloyd have posted numbers worse than that so far, they have yet to 'get it done', if you will.

If you want to blame Mark Brunell for seriously ALL the team's problems, continue to do so, but with what he had to work with he did better than expected. It's his fault the team's morale is low, its his fault the defense can't get off the field, it's his fault that anytime we get something going offensively, we commit a stupid penalty.

If we have lost hope, we have nothing to blame but losing itself.

Lloyd is showing flashes of brilliance whenever the ball gets near him as of late, he should definitely be our redzone option in the passing game, he can go up and get the ball like a big receiver. Randal El's presence in the punt return game is crucial, always gives us a shot to break a big return, and we need to keep cartwright on KOR because he's got great speed and reads the seems very well. I don't think randal el is a good KOR because he's mistake prone and not as strong of a runner as cartwright. Rock is fumble prone so I don't konw of other teams will be after him, i think we should resign him.

And as has been mentioned many times, how nice is it to sit back on a punt and KNOW that it's not going to be a fumble and that every time he touches the ball, there's a chance at it going all the way.

One thing I can say, when Lloyds number has been called as a receiver... he's responds almost every time.

I've been very pleased with that acquisition.

Me too, Lloyd has done all he could, I just hope he isnt upset with the situation because he seems like a solid reciever. Another thing about Lloyd, is his passion for the game. He seems to be one the few guys with a pulse, when we are getting destroyed. I love his energy, he acts like a little kid playing football in the park, and that is very refreshing to see from this team of deadbeats.

And as has been mentioned many times, how nice is it to sit back on a punt and KNOW that it's not going to be a fumble and that every time he touches the ball, there's a chance at it going all the way.Well, I'd be surprised if he NEVER fumbled in a Redskin uniform, but your point is well taken.

His versatility has certainly been a breath of fresh air, and his running and even throwing has propelled our still top 10 efficency rating (we dropped 3 spots after the Phili game if anyone cares). Even though it's narrow minded to look only at Randle El's receiving, he's been not so great so far. Between drops and not getting first downs that are right there...he's left more to be desired in that aspect of his game.

Worse than replacement doesn't mean that he CAN'T (or isn't) get the job done. It means he's not doing a job quite as well as some guy on the waiver wire (who doesn't completely suck) could.

IBut what we know about Randle El and Lloyd through nine games is this: if you remove them not getting the ball often, remove Randle El's versatility, remove all contract issues about how much they are paid because that really doesn't matter in-season, and you have two guys that as receivers though 9 games have played worse situationally than you would expect from a replacement level receiver.

DPAR is not a percetage stat, and although not getting the ball will affect totals, when you are NEGATIVE, there is no one to blame but yourself. Considering if you never saw the ball once, your DPAR would be 0.0, and Randle El and Lloyd have posted numbers worse than that so far, they have yet to 'get it done', if you will.

If you want to blame Mark Brunell for seriously ALL the team's problems, continue to do so, but with what he had to work with he did better than expected. It's his fault the team's morale is low, its his fault the defense can't get off the field, it's his fault that anytime we get something going offensively, we commit a stupid penalty.

If we have lost hope, we have nothing to blame but losing itself.

whats the standard for a 'replacement player?' on the 2 or 3 times A MONTH that Randle El and Lloyd got the ball, did they run BACKWARDS or something? wouldn't it be about 10,000x times more likely is that it was a poorly thrown ball?

if you're going to keep spitting obscure stats to us here, you should do a better job of illustrating exactly how they work. while you're at it, you may want to forward your findings to coach Gibbs, the team, the NFL, and the NFL press.

and that last sentence? um, WHAT? :confused:

Well, I'd be surprised if he NEVER fumbled in a Redskin uniform, but your point is well taken.

His versatility has certainly been a breath of fresh air, and his running and even throwing has propelled our still top 10 efficency rating (we dropped 3 spots after the Phili game if anyone cares). Even though it's narrow minded to look only at Randle El's receiving, he's been not so great so far. Between drops and not getting first downs that are right there...he's left more to be desired in that aspect of his game.

Worse than replacement doesn't mean that he CAN'T (or isn't) get the job done. It means he's not doing a job quite as well as some guy on the waiver wire (who doesn't completely suck) could.

Here is my question... does anyone think that with TO, Randy Moss, Jerry Rice in his prime, etc, that they would have put up better stats than Lloyd and Randle El in this offense?

Lloyd, Randles El AND Moss!

Is GTripp vs. Ill going to be the undercard for Hess vs. That Guy? These are the questions that truly need answers

whats the standard for a 'replacement player?' on the 2 or 3 times A MONTH that Randle El and Lloyd got the ball, did they run BACKWARDS or something? wouldn't it be about 10,000x times more likely is that it was a poorly thrown ball?

if you're going to keep spitting obscure stats to us here, you should do a better job of illustrating exactly how they work. while you're at it, you may want to forward your findings to coach Gibbs, the team, the NFL, and the NFL press.

and that last sentence? um, WHAT? :confused:

Fair enough. I pulled some blurbs from FO to explain replacement level:

[W]e've determined that a replacement level player has a DVOA of roughly -13.3%.

Actually, while in general replacement level is -13.3%, technically it is different for each position depending on whether we are measuring passing, rushing, or receiving. And, of course, the real replacement player is different for each team in the NFL. (Kansas City started 2005 with Larry Johnson as the backup running back, while Houston had Vernand Morency. Big difference there.) No starter can be blamed for the poor performance of his backup, so we create a general replacement level for use across the league.

The idea of replacement level says that when a regular player gets injured, he isn’t usually replaced by an average player; all the average players are starting for other teams. He gets replaced by a replacement level player. In baseball, that’s a minor leaguer or bench scrub; in football, that’s a backup quarterback riding the bench, or a free agent some other team dropped in preseason, or a fourth receiver who suddenly finds himself playing opposite Randy Moss.

So now, an average player who can be used repeatedly — thus opening up other parts of the offense and gaining yards on a regular basis — becomes more valuable. Because if you lose him, you aren’t replacing him with a similar player. You’re replacing him with a significantly worse player.

[O]ur best approximation is that a team made up entirely of replacement-level players would be outscored 407 to 260, finishing with a 4-12 record. Conveniently, this is close to the average record of the last four expansion teams.


The last sententce says, quite obviously, that any hope or morale lost this season was lost due to losing, and losing alone. Morale doesn't have to be measured because it's a simple concept. You win, people are happy. You lose, people aren't.