Discuss: 90's QB Stats

The key QB stat is TD/INT. With the exception of the Trent Green year (letting him go was a bigger mistake than letting B. Johnson go), a strong TD/INT ratio has resulted in playoffs.

I think Ints should stand independant of TDs. Having TDs is nice and all, but does it really matter whether the QB throws for it, or if the team runs it in. What you should look at is total team TD. Ints aren't always the quarterback's fault, but a high number never represents a good thing, whereas a low TD total works if the team scores a lot.

Both Trent Green and Rich Gannon would have hit their primes much sooner if we had kept them around. BJ quarterbacked here in his prime, and replacing him with Tony Banks and Jeff George is just plain stupid. Seriously, what's exciting about those guys?

To say that Danny Wuerffel and Shane Matthews were an improvement is an embarrassment, but something I believe to be accurate.

I don't think anyone could have seen what Rich Gannon was going to do later in his career. I mean the year after he played for us no one wanted him. He sat out all of 1994.

Trent Green was just bad timing. He was a free agent when we had no owner. As for Brad Johnson, while I was never a big fan of his personally, it was a juvenile mistake for Snyder to let him go.

Anyone else remember John Friesz?

Thers still a dent in the wall from Gus. Does anyone have that clip?

I agree there, but the thought of filling your most important need for 10-15years is pretty tempting, and top 5 picks don't come around that often... a lot of times top ten QB picks are purely need, whereas almost every other position involves a lot more "best talent" available.

An interesting factoid I saw here:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12389000/


Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger is the only first-round quarterback to win a Super Bowl since Denver's John Elway in 1997-98.

Trent Dilfer did it, but not with the team that drafted him. He actually kept that team from winning a superbowl.

Yah, but that's a pretty tough standard Riggo. I mean in the history of the NFL, how my quarterbacks have actually won a super bowl? Maybe 30 or so? Certainly you wouldn't argue that guys like Peyton and Marino and Carson Palmer were bad first round picks, would you?

Yah, but that's a pretty tough standard Riggo. I mean in the history of the NFL, how my quarterbacks have actually won a super bowl? Maybe 30 or so? Certainly you wouldn't argue that guys like Peyton and Marino and Carson Palmer were bad first round picks, would you?

No, I never said anything like that.

Let me try and explain it like this....

Here is a list of the 37 QBs drafted in the first round (including supplemental because the cost is the same) from 1986 to 2002.

The numbers listed are QB taken, Round, Pick, Overall Pick:
2002
1 1 1 1 David Carr Texans Fresno State
2 1 3 3 Joey Harrington Lions Oregon
3 1 32 32 Patrick Ramsey Redskins Tulane
2001
1 1 1 1 Michael Vick Falcons Virginia Tech
2000
1 1 18 18 Chad Pennington Jets Marshall
1999
1 1 1 1 Tim Couch Browns Kentucky
2 1 2 2 Donovan McNabb Eagles Syracuse
3 1 3 3 Akili Smith Bengals Oregon
4 1 11 11 Daunte Culpepper Vikings Central Florida
5 1 12 12 Cade McNown Bears UCLA
1998
1 1 1 1 Peyton Manning Colts Tennessee
2 1 2 2 Ryan Leaf Chargers Washington State
1997
1 1 26 26 Jim Druckenmiller 49ers Virginia Tech
1996
1 2 12 42 Tony Banks Rams Michigan State
1995
1 1 3 3 Steve McNair Oilers Alcorn State
2 1 5 5 Kerry Collins Panthers Penn State
1994
1 1 3 3 Heath Shuler Redskins Tennessee
2 1 6 6 Trent Dilfer Buccaneers Fresno State
1993
1 1 1 1 Drew Bledsoe Patriots Washington State
2 1 2 2 Rick Mirer Seahawks Notre Dame
1992s
1 1 0 0 Dave Brown Giants Duke
1992
1 1 6 6 David Klingler Bengals Houston
2 1 25 25 Tommy Maddox Broncos UCLA
1991
1 1 16 16 Dan McGwire Seahawks San Diego State
2 1 24 24 Todd Marinovich Raiders USC
1990
1 1 1 1 Jeff George Colts Illinois
2 1 7 7 Andre Ware Lions Houston
1989s
1 1 0 0 Steve Walsh Cowboys Miami (FL)
2 1 0 0 Timm Rosenbach Cardinals Washington State
1989
1 1 1 1 Troy Aikman Cowboys UCLA
1988
1 3 13 68 Tom Tupa Cardinals Ohio State
1987
1 1 1 1 Vinny Testaverde Buccaneers Miami (FL)
2 1 6 6 Kelly Stouffer Cardinals Colorado State
3 1 13 13 Chris Miller Falcons Oregon
4 1 26 26 Jim Harbaugh Bears Michigan
1986
1 1 3 3 Jim Everett Oilers Purdue
2 1 12 12 Chuck Long Lions Iowa

Of those, I'd argue that in hindsite only 8 or 9 were worth the expense of a 1st round pick (which ones, that's subjective, but I think you can find 30 that you can argue were probably not the best use of the pick).

In other words, at least 3 out of 4 times maybe even 4 out of 5 times, those 1st round picks didn't provide good value. I am saying that those who swear by the conventional wisdom that you must follow NE & PIT by building through the draft at the QB position are banking on luck and ignoring the history.

An interesting factoid I saw here:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12389000/

1st round QBs tend to go to bad teams. look at how many #1 overall picks go on to win superbowls... its almost 0, and most who do, do it with other teams after their rookie contracts expire. Does that mean the #1 overall picks all suck? or just the teams that are taking them? ;)

I'd never draft QBs, RBs, or LBs in the first round, but i'm not a GM. that said, bad teams hurt.

tommy maddox went to the superbowl, dilfer, bledsoe, mcnair, collins, mcnabb did too. that's more than just ben.

I understand what you're saying Riggo, and I agree with you that looking at that list certainly the majority end up being busts. I just took issue with the SuperBowl winning QB stat. I don't think that stat tells the whole story.

That Guy makes a great point too.....good teams with good QBs don't usually draft a QB in the first round......so a lot of these guys are put behind the 8-ball from the start (ala Carr, Harrington, Couch, Leaf, etc.).

I guess this whole discussion really needs a comparison. If we look back at the first rounders of any given position, how many really end up providing solid value? Which position typically performs the best and why? I'd like to see a comprehensive study.....it'd be interesting.

If I'm a GM, theres nothing I won't do if a situation dictates it. That said here are some of my favorite (from a hilarity perspective) selections of first round QBs over the last 5 or so years.

2005-Packers take Aaron Rodgers without doing their homework on him
2004-Bills trade up, giving up their 2005 first rounder for JP Losman
2004-The Chargers work out a trade for Philip Rivers and picks, when they could have easily had the higher rated prospect, Roethlisberger
2003-Kyle Boller.
2002-Joey Harrington goes 3rd overall despite a promising start to Mike McMahon's career. Millen destroys two careers with one pick.
1999-Who graded this draft?

1999 excluded, the interesting thing about these decisions is that everyone knew they were mistakes at the time they were picked. You could make a good case for Rodgers having great value, but the Packers didn't really research that guy, so how can they justify drafting him?

With this draft, what mistake can you realistically make with the QBs here? The only potential mistake I see is someone trading up into the bottom of the first to take a Charlie Whitehurst or a Kellen Clemens, some guy with a third round grade.